Monday Brexit

Not much to report today, before tomorrow's second round of voting.

There was a televised debate which Johnson ducked as he is so far ahead in the polls, and also, to ensure he don't say anything stupid.

An interesting point is that this will be the first time a party has replaced their leader/PM and the Parliamentary Party has not done the voting.

So, calls from Labour that a General Election should be called has some basis in fact. That Johnson called for one when Brown replaced Blair is another.

On the subject of no deal, @DmitryOpines tweets:

I agree with David, the idea that a quick deal with the EU could emerge in the wake of No-Deal because a humiliated UK would limp back to the negotiating table is fanciful.

I take his points below, but I would that after No-Deal, it's too late to quickly undo the damage. The core and central benefit of May's Withdrawal Agreement is the transition period. Two years during which the UK will have withdrawn from the EU but would act and be treated as if it hadn't from a day-to-day trade perspective.

This transition period gives governments, businesses and consumers a grace period to make adjustments and preparations for Brexit, and for negotiations on the future trading relationship.

It is absolutely vital, but can't be added retrospectively after No-Deal.

Once the UK has left the EU under No-Deal, with all the disruption that entails, the EU will not and can not sign an agreement, say, four months later which institutes a transition period.

It would be utter chaos.

Without the ability to agree a transition period, any deal to manage the economic fallout of No-Deal and Brexit would by necessity become a negotiation on either an FTA, Customs Union or Single Market Membership.

Such negotiations are never quick.

o even in a hypothetical scenario where No-Deal is horrific enough to drive a future UK Prime Minister sprinting to Brussels to beg for immediate negotiations.

Even if that PM immediately concedes all points of current contention (backstop, Brexit bill)...

The EU would have no way to make the damage stop because it can't add a transition period once the UK has crashed out... and even the comparatively modest relief of a future relationship trade agreement would still be years away.

Food for thought.