Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Brexit latest

Just a reminder as to where the UK is on Brexit.

The UK will leave the EU without a deal unless a WA is agreed or the A50 is revoked.

An extension might be possible to allow for an election or 2nd referendum, but with the Conservative pissing the latest extension up the wall with a leadership campaign, it seems views are hardening behind Macron to be against a further extension.

The EU has broken up its Brexit team, and as a whole the EU has moved on.

There is no one for Johnson or Raab to negotiate with.

The WA will not be reopened for the reasons above, and won't anyway, the EU negotiated it in good faith.

The financial settlement is not a bill for the WA, but as settlement for activities already agreed upon as a member of the EU. It is payable under international law.

The backstop will not be changed, for the reasons we see with the Tory Party leaders; they don't trust the UK, or our political leaders.

The Political Declaration can be changed, but is not legally enforceable, as it is written in broad bushstrokes.

The numbers against No Deal will still be there no matter who is PM. The PM might be able to force it through, or try, but will pit the executive against Parliament. We have cut of King's heads for this.

Labour is going to try to take control of the order papers for one day this month to legislate against no deal, tying the hands of any PM. Several Conservative MPs look likely to back it.

An election is unlikely to change numbers in Westminster to any great extent. Positions are entrenched.

Other than that, all is good.

Oh, and Raab is on the ropes this evening as news comes of an NDA he forced a woman to sign in 2011. Anyone who doesn't have skeletons in their past might be OK. All contenders will have some, in Johnson's case, many.

And Andrea Leadsome marched on Parliament demanding to be able to take charge of it, before using her swipecard to gain entrance.

Its going to get crazier.....

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