COVID thoughts

I read a Twitter thread by a clinical data analysis regarding how poor the current data in England is, if, as we should be able to, use data to plan our actions going forward.

Infection rates all over England, just England, are climbing. In all areas. Although the steepest rise is in the South East and London, rates are accelerating north of there too.

Latest rates, according to the poster, was for the 21st December. And since then most areas were in their 2 or 3, and then relaxed for 5 days over the festive period, although many areas, like Sussex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire were put into tier 4 from a minute past midnight on the 26th, so bars, restaurants and sporting events are closed or don't allow spectators. But this was with four day's notice, so people could go out on a last piss up or four before the shutters came down.

We won't know until into the second week of January what effect the relaxation of rules and possible rule-breaking will have had on the nation's health and the NHS, but it won't be good.

Listening to the news this morning was a couple of hospitals already declaring emergencies as their A and E have reached capacity, and across England, current numbers of people in emergency care is just a couple of hundred less than the peak in April. Make no mistake, this is very serious, with the new strain being more infectious, but thankfully not deadlier.

It seems a national lockdown once again is coming, our fourth, with Scotland and Wales already there.

And we wwill have to deal with COVID at the same time as full economic Brexit, which, if Parliament and the EU ratifies it, won't be as bad as a no deal, but will still be grim. We will hunker down and stay safe, and hope you will as well.

Stay safe now, and every day.