March again

On March 2019, political Brexit was due to happen, that would have given the UK and EU 21 months to negotiate the outstanding issues.

The original palm, as by Vote leave for the referendum, was that the negotiations would happen first, all major issues agreed before the A50 note which was sent, meaning that the two year period would be a formality.

The reason this did not happen cannot all be laid at the door of the Brexiteers, DD went to meet Mr Barnier for the first time, prepared for the "battle of the summer" over the sequencing of the talks.

For some reason, DD did not fight, instead he gave into the EU on sequencing, meaning that some substansive issues would be agreed first, and only when they were done would the rest be discussed.

So, talke began, and a series of decisions by May meant that Brexit meant hard Brexit, migrants were citizens of nowhere, apart from British ex-pats, of course who were promised nothing would change for them. Leaving both the SM and CU meant hard Brexit, and really limits the deal that can be done on trade, and as ever I refer you back to the sliding scale of trade and control; the more you have of one the less you have of the other.

Though the UK has never accepted this, taking cakism to new extremes.

But the driving force in what May did, and Johnson followed was try to balance trade and deals for the country and keeping the hardline Euro-sceptic Tory backbenchers onside.

In the end, something has to give, and with each month it ws the headbangers that were pandered to. To the point now that no deal isn't hard enough, we must break laws, domestic and international, to create the illusion of a break with Europe.

Yet at the same time of breaking with the EU accepting the same or worse terms from the US, Japan and other countries.

Hope was pinned on a trade deal with the US, Trump would make it happpen, only he lost the election. He might try ever more extreme things to cling to power, but process in the US is clear, the Presidency will leave him on 20th January 2021.

And Biden has made it clear to the UK, honour your international commitments, and don't do anything to harm the GFA or peace on Ireland. Warnings came in September from Biden about this, and from the Senate that said even in a Trump victory, no trade deal if the GFA is threatened or worse.

So, here we are, 31 days away from economic Brexit, not ready for trade with the EU in most aspects, the threat of destruction of entire secotors of the economy, and the US not impressed either.

All this coupled with the UK the worse perfoming European nations, apart from Italy, in relation to infection rates, having the spent the most money on support for business, and the recession so much worse than almost any other country. The hit from COVID is going to be very bad, and worse than it would have been had lockdowns in March and November earlier so needed to be have been less strict, then Brexit will be twice as worse. And last for years, and the recovery might never catch up to where it was in June 2016.

Odd then that many Brexiteers are demanding that financial impact assessments be revealed for the three lockdown levels due to take effect from tonight, due to the worry on economy and choldren's health and prospects. The very same people who have denied the need for such impact assessments for any flavour of Brexit, and only last month all Tory MPs voted to deny the poorest children meals over the Christmas holidays, only to have to undertake another u-turn days later.

Every month since March 2019 has been just an extension, doubled with the fact that life has been on hold in the UK since 23rd March this year, and so December is just another March, but the final day will bring changes that cannot be avoided or quickly reversed.