Ruby Tuesday Brexit

Today, as yesterday, May's Cabinet met to discuss what shape they saw Britain final Brexit destination should be. That they can't decide among themselves, and never will make the chances of any kind of agreement with the EU very unlikely. In case of agreement it will be for something as impossible as unicorns for everyone.

It is already clear, or clearer, in the minds of the EU where brexit will lead. With May's "red lines", it rules out everything apart from a FTA like Canada has. All other deals are out because of things like ECJ oversight, having to accept the four freedoms. Or both. Only thing is, that a Canada style STA goes against the Good Friday Agreement and the agreement May made with the EU two weeks ago.

Everything is impossible, unless those red lines are not so red after all.

The Brexiteer headbangers, or some of them at least, would be very happy to walk away from the table and deal with a no deal. No matter what harm it did to the country and people. And would blame it all on the EU when it all went Pete Tong.

The reality is that negotiations regarding Brexit are not between the EU and UK, but between May and her cabinet. And the chances of them all agreeing to something is remote. And yet the clock is ticking, There are three months to agree the transition deal, and know what the transition is towards before the talks about trade talks begin. It is May trying to get Johnson, Gover et all as well as the Mail and Torygraph to see sense and reality, and then have a united front to present to the EU.

The final deal will be what the EU will offer us. They know the mess we are in and are waiting how long before, at each stage, Britain gives in to reality.

So while the Cabinet and Fleet Street shout at each other, the clock ticks down and day by day we get closer to Brexit, which will happen, on schedule, at 23:00 on 29th March 2019. Unless someone, the UK Government, asks it to be stopped, and the EU agrees.

Oh yes, the EU agrees.

And it announced that in the case of a transition deal, it is what is classed as a mixed deal, which means all EU Parliaments and Regional Parliaments must agree. And that is before Westminster agrees or not. No unanimous agreement in all of the EU, no deal. At all. Russian roulette. EU roulette if you will.

If there is no deal between the EU and UK, then the no boarder between NI and Ireland must be maintained, and whatever deal keeps that as it is must also apply to the whole of the country. And be within the WTO rules; SM or CU or something so similar it makes no difference. So, BINO, Brexit In Name Only. Unless the headbangers get their way, which is possible.