The winter solstice Brexit news

I read a few weeks ago, the best analogy regarding Brexit, and how best to explain it to people: In regards to international trade, you can have either trade or control; the more you have of one, the less you have of the other. So, the Government saying it wants to leave the EU in the name of trade and to reduce red tape, is clearly untrue. And as I have pointed out with the case of the chlorinated chicken; there might be alignment between the EU and UK on chicken (this could apply to any goods of foods), and agree that any of the good produced in UK is to EU specifications, and allowed to be exported. But once UK allows American standard chlorinated chicken in, any chicken exported to the EU would have to be shown to not be American. This would involve sourcing documentation, documentation that the EU would have to approve and have trust in. Without the trust or documentation or alignment in standards there is just more and more red tape, and red tape causes delays and costs money. On top of any tariffs that the EU might have to impose because of their or WTO rules.

And today, as a Christmas Present, the Department of Exiting the EU released 39 of the 58 analysis papers, that thus far had been secured better than the crown jewels or the Dead Sea Scrolls (one for the kids, there). To say that the 39 papers lacked detail would be an understatement. Most of them have no analysis at all, nor it seems much interaction with sectoral representatives, or if they did, those have been removed. We have learned, however, that what is left of the UK fishing industry is concentrated in coastal areas and agriculture is part of the food supply chain. No wonder they were kept so secret, if that got out last month the country would have been made a ridicule of.

May has suggested that a transition period of "at least" two years would be needed at the end of the A50 process. More like 5 years in reality, but I guess that could have been added to. But the EU said yesterday, you can have 21 months, thus ending on New Year's Eve 202, so ending when the current EU budget period concludes. And May cannot really argue with that, even if she would like to, as this would further enrage the Brexiteer headbangers in her cabinet and part. Talking of which, two days of discussions in May's Brexit Cabinet" have ended without any agreement, and May talking still of deep and special relationship, which is Maybot speak for wanting open borders, no movement on people and all for free.

Which really shows that May and DD have learned nothing in the 18 months of Brexit, in still thinking, and saying out loud wanting things that are impossible to have at the same time. The walls of Brexit reality are closing in all the time, but at some point the reality will have to be faced, and hard choices will have to be made. But as I said, with the agreement on phase 1 of the deal, the EU is insisting that those are enshrined in UK law before talks about trade talks begin, after two months of talking about the transition, but as we have said in order to have transition, you need to know the final destination, or where you want to end up, in order to know what the transition deal will cover. And May and her cabinet has just a couple of weeks to thrash out out what she really wants for the country at the end of Brexit. And for that to happen she has to get the Europhiles and Brexiteers to agree, because the negotiations are not with the EU, but between the warring wings of the Conservative Party, and as in everything else, the country comes a distant third consideration behind what is good for the party and personal ambition.

Speaking before a Brexit Committee, May could not explain how in order to get a deal with the EU and keep the NI/Irish border as it is now. When the Brexiteers find out that the fall back position is that NI and the rest of Britain will adopt every EU rule, old and new, in order to have regulatory convergence, and that will have to apply to the whole of the UK to avoid a hard border in the Irish Sea and will seriously affect the kind of deal Britain could sign with any other country outside the EU. And so the end position will be UK out of the EU, CU and SM in all but name, and abiding by all trade laws and judgements from the UCJ without having any say in any of those rules, being, as JRM says, a vassal state, but one by choice and out of necessity in order to keep trading with someone.

Finally, that nice Mr Barnier pointed out that on the 29th March 2019, UK will drop out of every trade deal the EU has globally, numbering some 750 or so at the last count, and he helpfully pointed out that he dounted if Britain had the knowledge or resources to conduct these, but they needed to be done now in order to be able to trade on 30th March 2019. And May tried to row back on giving Parliament a vote on the fnal Brexit deal, and was forced to concede to the House of Commons.

May is Prime Minister in name only; not able to negotiate with the EU, just accepting what is offered, unable to unite her party. Or cabinet. And too weak to be able to sack her First Minister of State, Damian Green, who lied about watching online porn on his ministerial laptop. He had to resign.