Back to the future

It is a little known fact that the EU hasn't actually ratified the TCA. It has kicked that process back into April, and possibly beyond, just because there are other more pressing matters with COVID, Russia and Biden, so the UK is on probabation, really, with the EU being able to see how we react politically to the new reality.

If there is any doubt about the UK's long term commitment to the TCA, then ratification might not hapen and it all ends in (UK) tears.

Johnson, JRM and Gove sees scrutiny and oversight as something to be avoided, the be able to ram through major legislation in a few hours so MPs who voted for it, don't really know what they voted for until it is too late. It happened with the WA and WAB, so why not the TCA?

The TCA binds the UK to abide by a set of agreed rules and operate with a set of agreed parameters, and if it steps outside those then there will be ramifications, which in the most severe case wil result in the TCA being halted and there being a no deal. This can happen very quickly, and at any point in the future.

Also much in the TCA has yet to be agreed. Talks are ongong, with deadlines at the end of most months. Further in the future, things like fishing are to be reviewed every few years or so, so we can see that Brexit wasn't really an event, or series of events that have now ended, but an endless brexit that will drag on until we decide and the EU allows us to rejoin, or there is close enough alignment to make oversight un-neccessary.

At no point in Brexit has the UK side looked ahead to the next stage, as the Government has been fighting with either its own backbenchers, the Commons of House of Lords about getting something agreed to getting past the latest barrier without any thought of what they were agreeing to or what it would mean in the future. While the EU had a set of stategic goals, red lines and political agreement over 27 member states, with any change being agreed between them and passed onto their negotiating team under Mr Barnier.

There was good news this weekend that Nissan would built its new electric motors in the UK, it is in reality just confirmation of what they had already stated, but must have received political assurances post-Brexit to agree to continue. Thing is, to be able to supply the EU market, the motors will have to conform to the Rules of Origin as detailed in the TCA, and if that were to fail the investment in the north east by Nissan would be for nothing. This is the last chance saloon for the UK and high volume automotive manufacture, so if the headbangers and ERG push for breaking the TCA, it puts plans like this and thousands of jobs, direct and indirect, in jeopardy.

The current TCA isn't fit for purpose for cross-border just in time supply chains or in the movement of high value, short life produce. Either we and our businesses accept these will have have friction so become unaffordable and inefficient, or they will need to be renegotiated sooner rather than later. And the EU has appointed Mr Barner to be part of the oversight going forward.

While in the UK, many Ministers are still in denial about the reality of borders between Dover and Calais and between Britain and NI.

These realities are not teething problems, but here to stay and a direct result of the Brexit that the ERG and other headbangers wanted, remember its as hard a Brexit as it could be while still having a deal in place. The decision to leave the SM and CU was the UK's and UK's alone, the EU accepted this and moved on, whilst preparing. The UK pretended that there were no problems ahead.

So, much more Brexit right through Spring, and beyond. And at any point the EU could stop everything.

Who has the control?