Friday Brexit

The final form of Brexit, or the form until it needs to be reviewed (which might be sooner than later), was decded several years ago when May decided Brexit meant leaving the SM and CU.

Since then the path to today, flowed, and the problems that will follow that.

Thing is, many Brexiteers do not understand trade.

And also fail to understand that the EU is not just about trade either, it does so much more.

And all that will have to be done, by us, and it is not free, and will cost more than the 42 pence per day that each of us used to pay for the EU.

Trade is no longer about an item, made in one country exported to another, and tariffs paid, or not. There are many more cross-border supply chains, where a plant or factory in different countries do a different step, or add another component, meaning that deciding on how it complies with tariff and non-tariff rules and barriers becomes very difficult, sometime harder than doing the paperwork.

But the SM removed the non-tariff barriers and the CU removed tariffs, meaning along with shared and accepted standards and rules, any company in any of the ten 28 states could trade with any customer in any of the other 27 member states as easy as one in its own country.

This simple, but difficult, process or processes, removes friction, cost, delays from supply chains, meaning deliveries could be planned, and costs known. It created very lean and competive trade in the EU, giving us, the EU consumer, low cost, high quality goods and services, while the member states agreed the rules and regulations and standards.

So by leaving the EU, SM and CU, unless there is a clear mechanism for aligning tax, standards, paperwork and so on, on both sides, the regulatory border will be where paperwork is checked for compliance, and whether tariffs are payable or not.

This creates delays, delays creates costs, costs reduces efficency.

Nt only that, pulling he plugs on 47 years of alignment, with literally two days to prepare for the new systems, with many IT systems not up and running, no tested, or in some cases, not designed, would be bad enough, but to do it at the same time of the second/third was of COVID, when firms have been stretched for ten months with that, and many had prepared and spent capitol on preparation for two previous Brexit dates. And finally warehouses bulging with Christmas stock, there just wasn't any flex in the system.

So here we are.

And just because there are no queues at the ports doesn't mean there isn't delays.

Trucks are not leaving factories, depots until paperwork is correct. In many cases, the exporter isn't bothering, neither is the haulier.

A customs agent is needed to smooth transit over the border. We never had enough, we were supposed to havve needed an extra 50,000 of them, it is unclear how many were actually recruited.

But here is an extract from a Polish road haulage trade newspaper:

"Polish trucking magazine http://40ton.net reports: A Polish truck driver entered Kent on Monday with valid Kent permit. He turned up at Ashford when they told him that his documents need to be double-checked, so he was sent to a different truck park to wait. On Wednesday (!) he was informed his paperwork got a green light and told to come back to Ashford custom place only to find that custom truck park is full. He was told to park on yet another truck park which serves the queue. There, the police come and fined him 300 pounds because his Kent access permit has by this time expired. So apparently the document called "kent access permit" needs to be renamed to "Kent accessing and then sitting for days, waiting for the paperwork permit". Also, in Ashford drivers have to wait up to 4 hours outside in the rain in the queue to the customs office."

Found in comments:

"The English tell you to leave the compound after paperwork is done even if your driving time is over. You can't just drive out and park in the lay-by, as they will slam a wheel clamp on you for that..."

"I've been fucked about for two days in United Whoredom. Now the best thing: I arrived in Germany, it took 15 minutes".

Most comments though are along the lines of

"Why do you ever go there? Haven't you learned anything after that infamous Christmas in Dover?"

"Fuck them, as if there was not enough job in civilised Europe!"

"If they are so wise, let them send British drivers through this crap"

So the idea that supplies of fruit, vegetables, car parts, aerospace parts and so on and on returning to anything like normal levels could well be rather wide of the mark.

What was missing from day 1 of discussions about what came to be called Brexit, was the consequences of any course, and the positive case for being a member. We might find out what the latter is as a by-product of Brexit, and certainly my colleagues in Denmark are looking on shocked and asking how could we, as a country, be so stupid?

Well, any questions or points against it were painted as being unpatriotic, any kind of advice or correcting of errors, small or big, was shouted down as "project fear", and apparently, people had had enough of experts. And yet it is those same experts that will have to fashion 72,000,000 silk purses out of a single Brexit pig's ear, as those in power are only now recognising the problems, or like the NI Secretary, still denying a border exists between Britain and the Province.

The EU have it so that if Britain diverges in many areas of policy and standards from the EU, it does too with NI, further fracturing the Union of the UK.

And failure to honour the WA, the NI Protocol or the TCA, all international treaties, will result in all current agreements, tariffs and trade arrangements being terminated, including closing Britain off from NI in goods. And at the same time making the UK being untrustworthy, and at the time it needs to enter into more and more such agreements around the world.

But that is it for Brexit for today, and maybe this week.

Next week, freight levels are expected to increase, and we might see queues at ports, lorry parks and airports.

Have a great weekend.