Fragile

The first few weeks and months of the TCA are the most fragile, as the procedures and rules are followed, so that things settle down. It is, perhaps, an advantage that COVID is happening at the same time, as traffic flows har about half, on some routes, than normal.

For the most part, to the world outside "trade-Twitter", things seem to have gone well, certainly better than "project fear" might have suggested.

But, clearly, we are going to delve into trade-Twtter, and the news is not good. Most SMEs have given up importing and exporting, even on goods like wine which clearly does not have a short life. Even if the paperwork is done, cost of paperwork, import and export taxes and so on will put £1.50 on the price of a single bottle, which will have to be passed on to the consumer. Worse than that, small businesses that used to import several different wines on a pallet now find that each different wine needs a separate declaration paperwork, and so on, meaning that large volume, single type imports are the only possible way forward, thus price increases, but customer choice is reduced.

Not much of a Brexit bonus there.

On the busiest route between Britain and Ireland, ferries are being cancelled due to lack of demand, simply because goods are not leaving warehouses, demand will still be there in NI, just no one willing to satisfy that demand. Until the new longer ferry route from Ireland to France, on new "super-ferries" take up the slack, thus avoiding the British land bridge.

The point about the TCA being fragile, is that until all sides, and users, get used to how systems work, something like what happened on Friday night can destroy what little trust there is on either side. And give ammunition to those who would, apparently, be quite happy to see the TCA fail.

We in Dover woke up on January 1st 2021 and found, when we looked out across the Channel, that France was still there. Brexit had not moved the EU one millimetre, and so common sense will dictate, at some point, that the UK and GB needs to trade, in high volume, with the EU27. News comes this morning that Liz Truss is trying to get the UK to join CPTPP, which is for countries around the Pacific Ocean. The UK does not have a Pacific coastline, and indeed, trades very little with countries on the other side of the world, because it is not of high economic value to do so.

It is for low volume, high value goods, but you are not going to sell many fresh Langoustines to Tonga. The point being, long distance trade, which takes time and is cost heavy, will not repalace local trade with our neighbours. Economic gravity tells us that, but when has Brexit ever been about something like facts and evidence?

Being a member of CPTPP would be nicce, but be a priority. Trade with the EU is essential, and getting costs and delays will be a priority, when the Brexiteers finally understand how trade and borders work. In the meantime, businesses will fail, jobs will be lost and the economy will shring. But blue passports, eh?