Thursday 5 April 2018

Can Brexit be stopped?

I be honest at the start, and state I don't know. But if it can be stopped, the stopping with have to come from UK. And for that to happen, there will have to be a major seachange in the views and/or leadership of the two main parties as clearly May is driving UK to the Brexit cliffedge, even if she doesn't believe it's the right thing, in fact she thinks its a very stupid thing, but party come first and all that. And Corbyn is defying the official party policy of Labour and wants UK out of not just the EU by the SM and CU too.

Oddly, the right wing press have been Corbyn-bashing like there's no tomorrow this week, claiming he's anti-semitic after he attended a meeting with a Jewish group. Lots can be aimed at Corbyn, but being anti-smeitic isn't one of them. However, if the mud they've been throwing sticks and he is removed, then there is the chance that a new leader would be anti-Brexit, and then, well, who knows. But Corbyn is backed by Momentum who thinks he is the socialist messiah, whereas he's just a little deluded and ignored the crackpots in his party too long.

The next question is, if Parliament rejects whatever "deal" May might strike with the EU, I would have said DD, but he can't strike a match, and if it were deemed by Parliament too bad a deal to accept, could it tell May and her Government to stop the A50 process? Probably not. Parliament allowed the A50 to be sent. Putting Parliament against the Government, when the Government is implementing the result of the referendum, advisory or not, would be a constitutional crisis. Of course, one of the underlying arguments for Brexit was the sovereignty of Parliament, but clearly, only when it is convenient to the Brexiteers.

It will not be a surprise to learn I am no expert on constitutional law, so a situation where Parliament and Government is against each other would be a disaster, and were that to result in litigation, and that litigation go beyond March 29th 2019, then Britain would leave the EU anyway.

As the A50 process will play out by simple operation of the calendar and international law.

Another hope is a second referendum on the deal. That is all well and good, but depends on what the question(s) would be, and anyway, primary legislation would take so long to get Royal assent that there isn't enough time now to get laws passed and the vote organised. And there is always the possibility that Parliament might add a high percentage to stop Brexit. They didn't set a minimum percentage for the referendum, but who knows, anything is possible.

Even if all the above is overcome and somehow UK decided to stop Brexit, would the EU accept it? There is the term "good faith". Would UK be stopping Brexit to stop it only to start it again in a few years time when it got it's shit together. A halting of the A50 process would have to come with watertight assurances that UK wouldn't start it again. And then there would be the terms under which UK might have to pay to remain.

And then there are various reasons why some thing the referendum is flawed; the bus, broken promises, election law and funding flouted, and so on, and yet that isn't enough to mount a challenge to annul the result. It was only advisory anyway, so the Government and May could have ignored it, if they had good enough reason to do and explained it to the electorate. But they would rather plough on the vain hope of keeping the party together, even if it ruined the country and made 2.6 million people unemployed.

If Brexit is to fail, or be mitigated, it will be on detail, and failure of the Brexiteers to plan. The NI/Irish border being the biggest.

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