Monday 16 April 2018

It's not all agreed until it's all agreed.

So the EU have said over and over again. Not that it has got through the Brexiteers thick skulls, believing that what has been agreed thus far is written in stone. Its not, written in sand perhaps, and the winds of change can wipe out very easily.

Ireland has said that unless there is a satisfactory resolution to the NI/Irish border issue, then there is no deal; no transition deal, not trade deal. Nothing. UK crashes out of the EU without anything. Tis was always the case, and putting of the day when something has to be decided makes things even more critical.

There will have to be an agreement before the end of June, so as you can see, the next two months will be critical. As reality closes in even tighter, May and her Cabinet will have to make some very tough choices. The fallback position is well known, and although not enshrined in any law, to go back on that would be a disaster for UK and its businesses, to appear untrustworthy just at the time they have to negotiate tade deals with dozens of countries.

Whether the EU reach a deal with the UK, all of the EU27 will have a vote on the deal, and each will have the ability to veto it. So, if Ireland is not 100% happy, then they can veto the deal. And the transition deal is worse as that will also have to be ratified by regional assembles as well as each of the EU27 and the EU Parliament.

On top of that, the Chinese Ambassador to the UK stated that there can be no trade deal with the UK until there is a trade deal between the UK and EU. Of course, those who read these posts will remember that this was one of the earliest points I made. And this will be the same for most other countries. Only the US would contemplate a trade deal outside of a UK-EU deal being in place, as the US hopes to replace the EU as a trading partner, but not benign, instead dictating most aspects of the deal, and at the same time causing barriers and tariffs to be put up between what trade is left between UK and the EU.

If that is not bad enough, then the treatment of May and Amber Rudd, Home Secretaries, of the Windrush generation; it emerging that many have been denied health treatment, imprisoned, lost legitimate pension rights and even deported back to countries that had not lived in for 50 years or more, the EU stating it is now alarmed that EU citizens being promised rights that are not enshrined in law, and what promises made by May is worth anything? Those of the Windrush generation came here when Britain needed workers to support the economy, and in return they were granted UK citizenship. Or should have. The Home Office lost their paperwork, and even their children are finding that they also do not now have UK citizenship, when they clearly should have.

This is a national shame, that comes after 8 years of anti-immigration rhetoric and policy for the Conservative Party and governments. It is at least now being reported in most of the press, so there is pressure on the Government to act, but will be responding to its own policies and actions, and both May and Rudd should answer to their actions by either being sacked or resigning.

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