Tuesday 2 October 2018

6 months to go

In fact, less than that, but hey....

just over 18 months ago, the PM, Mrs May, triggered the start of the A50 process, which is strictly limited to two years. Meaning that at 23@00 on 29th March 2019, the UK will stop being subject to the EU treaties by simple operation of international law.

And the calendar.

The UK will leave the EU, unless the UK Government of the day says, or asks, otherwise.

And will leave if there is an WA and TA in place, or not.

That May triggered the A50 process with no plan in place, and no clear idea of where the country or the process would go, is something that will damn her down the years, but for now, all that is in the future.

One of the first things to be decided after May's also disterous snap election in 2017, was the timetable of the talks, which let us not forget, DD says would be the row of the summer. He capitulated before morning was served on the first day, not only agreeing to the three basic subjects to be agreed first (financial settlement, citizen's rights and the Irish border) but also that the last 18 months of the two year period given over to ratification.

We are now in that last 6 month period, with little of any substance having been agreed since December, and what was agreed then, the Conservative party is trying to wriggle out of. There should have been a conference this month to formally ratify the WA before sending it to each of the Parliaments of the EU27 for formal ratification, whilst the UK Government did that at home.

But instead, the Conservative party has started over negotiating with itself over what the December "sufficient progress" means, and what they signed up to, and Cabinet agreed to, now they cannot agree to. Now that it has been pointed out as to what they have agreed to.

Boris de Piffle Johnson had a fringe event at the conference today, and said the PM, in effect, should be tried for treason, for agreeing to the fallback position, something he as Foreign Secretary also agreed to. Twice. Boris has no answers to the issues affecting Brexit, just more waffle and bluster, and ignoring the fact that without a WA there can be nothing else, and for there to be a WA there has be agreement on, well, you know by now.

I wrote 18 month ago that the last part of Brexit the UK had control of was when to submit the A50 notification. The rest is in the gift of the EU27 to give; the final WA will be a take it or leaves it off, based on the UK's A50 letter and May's red lines. We will only ourselves to blame, and have decades to ponder that fact too.

The walls of reality are all around Brexit, but as ever, the easiest route for the Brexiteers is no deal, no WA Brexit, as it requires no work, no discussions, just jamming their fingers in their ears.

Most of the last 18 months have been spent to prevent radical change, to carry on as though Brexit has not happened, to minimise the effects. If the EU was that bad, then why waste that effort?

And today, May could not even admit that delays at the ports could be the reason why medicines and food needs to be stockpiled.

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