The moment of truth

This afternoon, the PM made a statement to Parliament stating that, in effect, the UK and EU would be together in a CU and SM, though she did not quite use those words or course.

Those who read these pointless posts will not be surprised at this turn of events, only that it took so long for reality to defeat Brexit. Only, it hasn't, not yet.

May has to get this through Parliament, and for the EU Parliament and all of the EU 27 to ratify it. If she gets it through Parliament, then a future Government reneging on this deal would mean splitting NO off from the rest of Britain in just about every meaningful way.

Anyone who is surprised by this clearly hasn't been paying attention.

But this is not over, the ERG has to decide what to do, will they try to topple the PM and force one of their own, DD, to be PM? Or an election which might gift Number 10 to Uncle Jeremy, though there is every indication he would press ahead with Brexit.

A second referendum is a non-starter for reasons I have said a few times, but also the fact that Parliament voted on triggering the A50 after the people's case which helped crowd-fund gave them a meaningful vote, which MPs chose to fritter away. And then there was a snap election which the two main parties, both of which pushed pro-Brexit policies won the vast majority of the votes, even if the Tories slump meant that in normal times the PM would have softened her policies, not continue towards the cliff edge at top speed.

The main problem for May is that the backstop would be so politically disastrous that anything, even BINO is better than triggering it. And it would be triggered as she and her Cabinet agreed to this last December.

Views differ on whether the TA can be extended indefinitely. Because if all else fails and no other solution can be found, the backstop comes into force and NI stays in the SM for goods, at least, and the UK doesn't.

So, we will see how the shitstorm plays out this week. I would be surprised if May survives as PM until Friday, but then I have been expecting a coup since March and it didn't come. So, time to see if the ERG and Brexiteers have the bollocks to see this out, bugger the consequences for the country.