Thursday 8 December 2016

Through the Brexit looking glass

Sorry about another Brexit blog, but this is a very important week in its history, and maybe defining.

The court case at the appeal court is drawing to an end as I write this, but it was yesterday that will have sent shockwaves through HM Government.

Wednesday, the devolved assemblies and Parliaments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland had their time in court, and it seems strongly possible that in NI the prerogative was handed to the Northern Irish people in 1998, and so their NT Government's brief was that the NI people should say. THe Welsh brief said that although the country voted to leave, the Welsh people should have a say on the best deal. And in Scotland, that depends on the interpretation of the Act of Union 1706 and 1707: you really could not make this up.

And all the time this is risking there being a legal limit to the Government's powers, something there isn't now. That the PM insisted the case be appealed risked this, and seems a silly thing to do.

So, there is a possibility that the Government could only trigger Article 50 in respect of England. Or England and Wales. Or some other combination.

With the case now closed and all arguments from all sides heard, it will be several weeks before the Appeal Court announces its verdict. Whether an Act is needed or the 1972 European Act repealed. Or not. Or, will the Welsh Assembly have to be consulted? And/or the Northern Irish Assembly also consulted? And/or the Scottish Parliament consulted? And what happens if one or more refuse to sanction it? Brexit dead? Article 50 could not be sent let alone talks start.

Such is the mess of the British Constitution and the British Government's decision making.

A massive climb down by the Government in the House of Commons meaning they have to share the Brexit Plan with the house, and allow discussion has been painted as a victory for the Government, odd as this goes against all what the PM has said to this point. There was also the backing of the triggering of Article 50 by the 31st of March.

But with the Appeal Case judgement notwithstanding of course.

And it could have all been avoided by inserting a clause into the 2015 act that allowed the referendum, stating the result would be binding. No arguments, we would be leaving.

No comments: