Outmanoeuvred by her own backbenchers

As you may recall that on Tuesday there was a "debate" on the HoL's amendments, and after much discussions and horse trading, the 17 Europhile rebels voted with the Government after they believed they had secured assurances about an amended bill.

Only for as soon as the vote had taken place, the Government, and the DExEU in particular, backtracking on what they said had been agreed, meaning that they only had to think about rewording. And would not, under any circumstances, allow the Government to be hand-tied by Parliament. The classic case of the tail wagging the dog, there, as Parliament is sovereign, as the main thrust of Brexit was supposed to restore.

Anyway, all seemed a done deal, until it emerged that the rebels had come to an agreement with Lord Hailsham in the HoL to reinsert the clause for a meaningful vote, and that would be sent back to the HoC next week for a vote, at which point, no matter what May says either in public or private, they will not believe and vote against the Government.

Double check and mate.

Only that isn't all either, as by the end of next week, or the end of the month at the latest, something needs to be agreed on the NI/Irish border, something that is acceptable to Parliament, the DUP, Ireland, the EU and be in line with WTO rules. Good luck with that. And no agreement on the border means no agreement on anything, as it all falls down.

So, I don't expect the PM to last until the end of next week, or into July. Either the rebels will vote against her next week, or if she caves in to them, then the Brexiteers will vote against her (if they keep their word, which up to this point they have capitulated at the last moment on all movement thus far(, either way its a vote of no confidence in the PM and her Government, and she has to go, and there either be a Leadership Contest, or a leadership contest and a General Election.

In theory, the idea of a "no deal" Brexit was killed off in a clause in the withdrawal bill that was passed, but as said before, if there is a failure in the EU27 or the EU Parliament, then UK crashes out without a deal, or will do unless either the A50 period can be extended (it probably can, but politically can't with EU elections in May 2019, and UK would have to take part if the period was extended) or withdrawn.

Meanwhile, Rolls Royce is to cut 4,000 jobs due to uncertainty, Euro-clearing has started to move to Amsterdam, and JRM's investment firm has opened a new location in Dublin to mitigate against the damage his support is causing.

You can't make this up.

And 70 Labour MPs voted against a three line whip last might, 6 shadow ministers resigned, after they voted against the Government rather than Corbyn's wish to abstain. Let us not forget that he voted, out of principle, against the Iraq War in 2002, even though there was massive support in Parliament and the country for it. Because he believed it was the right thing to do. He is enabling the Government to pass damaging law to force Brexit through, because he believes it to be right, not playing some kind of long game.

And the repatriation of devolved powers was not even debated in the HoC, just one minister making a statement. Passed without a vote. This has made the SNP rather angry, and when they tried to raise it yesterday at PMQ, their leader was kicked out of the chamber for refusing to withdraw, so the whole party walked out.

Although that may have been a stunt, ignoring the wishes of one country out of four, two in fact as NO also voted to remain, bring the possibility of a break up of Great Britain and the UK so much nearer. Scotland knows how much good work the EU has done for poorer regions, and how England-centric Westminster is, so, the spectre of Indyref II and a half is looming. And also remember, that under the GFA, Northern Ireland can vote for Irish unification at any point, and Britain would not be able to stop it.