Back to reality.

When I say reality, what I mean is back to where reality shows us which side in the trade talks between the UK and EU has leverage.

I'll give you a clue which one has leverage, its not the UK.

And already it is becoming obvious that the EU will use the ticking of the clock as their biggest leverage, with their mandate for talks not due to be settled until the end of February. Which means, for those of you not paying attention at the back, that any talks will start in March and have to be concluded by the end of June. That's four months.

Johnson wants talks to begin as soon as possible, but of course, the UK team as no mandate as the various tribes of Brexit all have different objectives for any talks. As we saw with the A50 negotiations, not having an objective(s) means the other side will steer the course.

I realise I repeat the same things over and over again, but this is because Brexiteers repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and don't seem to realise it. Saying we will go for no deal to make sure the EU blinks first when such a course of action failed multiple times in the past and so seems stupid doesn't seem to register.

And the Express trumpeting that Brexit will herald a decade of never before seen prosperity. I didn't read the leading piece, but I can't believe its based on any kid of reality or peer-reviewed data. Just wishful thinking.

And the WAB is to be passed in just three days in both Houses, with little scrutiny, and what there is will be mostly people who do not understand the issues it contains and whether they are achievable or realistic, and if not, what would the consequences be.

The WAB is nearly 80 pages long and is dense in detail, this outlines how our country will relate to our closest and biggest markets for a generation.

3 days.

The Wildlife in Circuses Act which affected less than animals had 10 days debate.

But three days is enough, apparently.

But onto the negotiations:

1. According to the Political Declaration the first item to be finalised is financial services equivalence - by the end of June 2020. According to the relevant EU documents there are 26 areas in which equivalence is judged, and not one country has been deemed equivalent in all of them. Even then equivalence falls a long way short of current levels of access.

2. Next to be agreed and ratified between UK and EU, by 1 July 2020, a fisheries agreement. This is probably more politically sensitive on both sides though less economically important than financial services. What fish and financial services have in common (along with many other areas in UK-EU talks) is the specialist knowledge required to fully understand the range of issues concerned. For fish for example see this on the different interests involved.

3. By the end of 2020 the UK and EU aim to have data equivalence arrangements in place. This is a major concern across a swathe of services businesses, though manufacturers also have an interest.According to some experts I've heard the UK's existing laws on data, while not a problem inside the EU, will be for equivalence.

4. Next agreement to put in place between the UK and EU before the end of December 2020, the detailed implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol. What checks will be carried out, what tariffs will be paid. Northern Ireland political parties and business are working together to propose amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill on NI-GB trade. They fall without government support, but its a powerful statement, and politically tricky.

So that's four agreements to be made before we come to the Free Trade Agreement, barebones or not. There's an interface between the FTA and the others, not least on fish as many have been saying. Even a simple Free Trade Agreement will have to include level playing field measures covering at least environment, labour, state aid, competition, and quite possibly more as the EU demands. Even tariff and quota free isn't simple. Rules of Origin determine what products qualify, and if they don't suit UK producers the zero tariffs are of no use. Example below from CETA.

If there is to be no extension to the transition period, this FTA has to come into force on 1 January 2021. But with time for ratification and implementation you'd probably need agreement by October latest. Even that is challenging for EU procedures.

Remember the three areas of the WA took the best part of three years to agree, and only when Johnson rubbed out his biggest red line was there an agreement. But I'm sure this is fine.

(David Henig @DavidHenigUK)