Three choices

As we enter the new year and Brexit becomes a reality. Or Brexit in terms that after 31st January, the articles of the EU will no longer apply to the UK as a member.

Ahem.

The question should now move to what happens next?

And there is just three choices, and some of you might see some kind of familiarity here:

1. Exit the transition period with a trade agreement.

2. Leave the transition period without a trade agreement.

3. Run out of time and accept whatever the EU offers that the end.

Now, #3 seems unlikely, but this is what happened in the A50 talks, in a bid to do something, the PM just took what had already been offered, and hoped no one looked at the detail.

As for #1, the closer the alignment between the UK and EU the easier the trade agreement, but getting anything done in the time available is ambitious bordering on the insane.

#2 will devistate the economy and society for decades, and no sane leader, not Johnson would like to take ownership of Brexit under those circumstances. Sure, he would try to blame anyone, the EU, remianers, anyone, but with a Parliamentary majority, ownership of Brexit would be his, and when the hits started coming, anger would be vented his way.

There are many variables, and almost any outcome is possible, including #2, just so he does not lose face, but the ramifications would be huge. And his to bear alone, as PM, as people will look at what had been said to this point.

Would the ERG and the new influx of Brexity MPs of the 2019 election for the Tories just accept the opposite of what they had to swear to? Who know? Johnson being trapped in a destructive Brexit by his own MPs and the ERG is possible. They could bring down any deal that needed to be ratified.

But at the end of it, there are just three choices and a very limited time to decide.