Friday 10 January 2020

We know what we don't want.....

I have just read the latest post by Chris Grey on Brexit, and in it, he makes the very good point that the original referendum vote, in 2016 was a vote against something, in that case EU membership.

Since then, Brexiteers, Remainers, MPs and the Lords have all said at various times what they don't like about Brexit or the Brexit process, but have failed to agree on what they do like. In the case of the Brexiteers, Johnson included, what it actually means. There is a hotch-potch collection of red lines and meaningless phrases, which put together means the UK is heading for a dreadfully poor deal where we will trade with the EU on a tariff-free basis.

Long forgotten are the promises of a better deal than membership, because the bitter truth now, as it always was, is that membership of the EU is the best deal there is. Anything else is inferior. Same with SM membership. It is the best there is for inter-state trade. Without membership there is red tape, delays and increased cots and reduced efficiency and profits.

That the Commission President and the EU's chief negotiator has to keep repeating these self-evident truths says much about the level of discourse within the UK. And that such truths are then described by such respected journals as the Daily Express as "threats", show how it is we came to be here.

As I have said many times, any fool can negotiate a poor trade deal, and like with the WA, the UK will be forced to accept what the EU offers, and then Johnson will have to sell it as a victory, rather than the humiliating defeat it actually is.

MPs have backed the WAB by passing its 3rd reading, with little evidence they actually understand what it is they have set in motion. If the leaks are true, then the UK Government is willing to sacrifice the auto and aerospace industries as they were seen to be in decline. But I don't remember seeing that on the side of a bus.

Thing is, if trade in goods being affected wasn't bad enough, for a service-based economy, like the UK's, is not covered at all by any kind of FTA, and there will be great barriers to trade in these. Passporting for financial services will stop for sure, in the UK. The impact of this will be that many financial services will move to the EU, though executives might continue to live in London, as its a nice place to live, even better if your hard earned Euros goes further against a much-weakened pound.

Jobs for the proles will have gone, however.

There is no escape from reality, never was, its how the new reality will be sold, and whether the electorate remember the huge promises of the 2016 and that all of them have turned to ashes.

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