The Brexit Horse

Yeah, I know I said I wouldn't write any more, but on this day, please forgive me.

And let me say, for now, I am not worried about Brexit.

Brexit is a process not an event, and today is a step in the Brexit process. An important one, but just one.

The referendum in 2016 asked a simple yes/no question: should the UK stain or leave the EU. 52/48 said we should leave.

And at 23:00 tonight, the UK leaves the EU, in that the Articles of the EU will no longer apply to the UK as a member state, but will do so under the transition agreement which was triggered by the WA.

If the referendum could said to have conferred a mandate, then that mandate will be carried out tonight.

Whatever happens next, and the Brexiteers will whinge and complain, they always do, the mandate has been carried out, the UK has left the EU.

There is no one true Brexit, never was, and any mandate they claim to have will have been carried out. Remember that. Look art the referendum question, its still online, not hiding. There is nothing defined, just stay or leave.

The final destination and shape of Brexit has yet to be decided, which is why seeing the Brexiteers crow and gloat about getting it done is odd; its not done, a long from it, and what comes next has yet to be decided, and maybe it has.

I don't have the technical overview, but the Political Declaration allows for an Associate Agreement to be put in place, and that is what the EU are preparing for; it is something that could be done in under a year, not we an FTA so require massive ratification across the EU27, and the framework could be added to or parts taken from afterwards.

Maybe such a Agreement does't need ratification from Westminster either?

Brexit will arrive in a little over ten hours, but what will it contain: everything the Brexiteers have been dreaming of, or an Association so close to be BINO?

In March and October last year, Brexit and reality came very close. From tonight, the two will be in permanent contact. Nothing may change for a while, but things will get fraught as Spring turns to summer and time runs out.

But reality will win out.

The EU will always be on our doorstep and we will always have to trade with it.

That is the reality.

The US will tells us the terms of any trade deal, no ifs and buts, that is the reality. It will be a good deal for US farmers and pharma, not for the UK.

This is reality.

The more the UK diverges from EU rules and regulation, the more Britain diverges from Northern Ireland, with all the possible Trouble that may bring.

This is reality.

Johnson lies. Always has, always will. And will throw anyone under the bus to achieve his personal ambition.

This is the reality.

Welcome to Brexit, now comes reality.