Friday 28 October 2016

How'd you like your Brexit? Hard or not at all?

Last week, president of the EU, M. Tusk when asked said that Brexit would be Hard or None.

During the Tory Prty conference, all seemed to be going well, with Minister after Minister making what were later described as "good speeches". But it really means nothing.

Why? I hear you ask.

Well, today, Monday, the leaders of the devolved governments and institutions gathered to hear what Mrs May had to say about Brexit and their role in it. To say the result was damning would be an understatement. When asked if she was undermining Westminster's Brexit strategy, Nicola Sturgeon said there would have to be one to undermine.

Ouch.

And last week there was the culmination of seven year's discussions and negotiations between the EU and Canada on a trade deal. Only in Belgium its not just the government that to agree on it, and all other such deals, but the regional governments too. And Walonia rejected it, and today (also Monday) Belgium pulled the deal. The thought then goes, could the same thing happen with any deal between the EU and Britain? How could it not?

How so? How about Spain rejecting anything until Britain agrees on discussions regarding Gibraltar? Not that hard to imagine. And how about the other 26 countries all wanting their pounds of flesh from London? And even if Britain and the 27 plus regional governments were to reach an agreement, then the whole shebang would have to be ratified by the European Parliament.

And after apparently pushing for what is called the "Hard" option, Mrs May said that no such thing had been decided upon. So, there is no plan, apart from the fact that she may, or may not, trigger Article 50 in March. All depending on whether the High Court and/or the Court of Appeal and/or the European Court agrees that it is Royal (or executive perogative) powers for her to bypass Parliament, and the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and the NI Assembly, and therefore runs the risk of breaking up the British Union, or setting the four countries against each other.

As M. Tusk said, the choice will be either Hard or non, as a bespoke deal with Britain, with national opt ins, or outs, would be complicated, and subject to review and.or veto by the 27, pus regional parliaments and the European Parliament. The simple, only choice will be hard or none.

Even with opt ins for certain trade areas, like financial services might be all but impossible to get through the legal clearance needed in Europe. So, crashing out with no deals, or deciding its all too difficult and forget about the whole thing.

Clearly, despite being resolute in conference, Mrs May has no idea, and her Brexit Ministers even less.

What could possibly go wrong? Just about everything, of course.

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