Tuesday 18 July 2017

Brexit reality check

Another week and another Brexit post. But a short one, as to be honest, the madness continues, but the warm light is creeping into the dark recesses of the Brexit wardrobe. It was always going to be thus, and the only real way out for the brexiteers is to blame the failure on getting a deal on those pesky Europeans, some of which speak funny and are different.

It was admitted by Liam Fx over the weekend that Britain after all, will not have nay free trade agreements with anyone come Brexit day. In fact, Britain can't to any other country about such deals until it leaves the EU. Just like was said, and was shouted down as "project fear". So David Davis' claims last year that within a year Britain would have dozens of deals with countries many times more valuable than the one currently with the EU as bollocks.

Just like what was said.

Monday Davis and his team went to Brussels to meet that nice Mr Barnier for the next round of meetings. The pre-meeting publicity photo op had the EU clutching great wads of documents looking eager to get on with the talks, Davis and co the other side had nothing, just big stupid smiles. But don't worry, the editor of the Spectator said, those EU chaps have bundles of EU red tape, just the sort of thing its right get be getting away from. It was pointed out that these might just be notes, useful for discussions.

In the end, it didn't matter as Davis stayed just a couple of hours and travelled back to London, the first meeting in a month, with the clock ticking, much to discuss, and he stays an hour. What madness is this? Just the usual stuff that barely raises an eyebrow in these mad times.

Al the main items have yet to be decided: the divorce payment, EU and GB citizens rights, the Irish border and these three things have to, if not agreed upon, make sufficient progress by October on so that the EU will allow the really meaningful talks on trades and tariffs to begin. This would leave just 11 months in which to get an agreement on something so ratification here and in Europe could take place.

There are ways of going about things, in which a deal, and even Brexit could be done in a way that would produce results. Insulting the other side, not being prepared and not really knowing what as a country, or Government, what is actually wanted is going to hamper, as the EU feels there is no unified opinion in Britain, and feels that any deal agreed might not be honoured, or even be passed through Parliament. He is probably right.

Will Brexit happen? Well, unless there is a way of stopping the Article 50 process, then yes, on 29th March 2019, Britain will leave the EU no matter what. Parliament refusing to support any deal, or no deal, the Government might have won't mean a jot, because it would be up to the EU to stop the process, and would they really want Britain to stay?

And then there is the very real reality )!) that the Conservative Party is more intent on ripping itself apart over the two conflicting views on Brexit; hard and quick, or not at all. Or slow as possible, so slow it might stop. Ministers have been leaking against the Chancellor, and the PM had to warn ministers to stop leaking. This, itself, was leaked. So, more party political games whilst the economy tanks, and May drones on about strong and stable, and finds another £1.5 billion from the magic money tree, this time for education.

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