Saturday 18 November 2017

Brexiteers face reality. And are shocked

THe past few days have been hard for May and her weary band of Brexiteers; first of all, despite all her pleading, she was told by Donald Tusk that the next part of negotiations cannot begin until the UK makes a reasonable offer in settling its accounts. On top of that rebuke, she was told that Britain has two weeks to come up with an offer of the cutoff for talks starting in December will be passed and it would then be February before they could start.

As you can see, time is running out, as we knew it would. As the EU knew it would, and the Brexiteers are getting panicky.

Most worryingly of all, was the Irish PM's statement yesterday that unless there is a concrete statement by Britain that there would be no hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, then Ireland would veto any trade deal. News of this swept through social media as it it was shocking. Those of you who know these words can tell you that each of the EU27 can veto the deal, if one is made. As can the EU itself and the UCJ. And mybe 11 regional parliaments as well. And if that happened, and the two year clock ran out, then Britain would leave without a deal.

As I have said so many times before, the border is the most difficult issue of the three to sort out, but then the Brexiteers and May should have known this, we did, before submitting the A50 notification. To do that before coming up with solutions, or even identifying stumbling blacks was madness. But then Brext is madness. The border, of at the edge of the EU, has to be "hard", to ensure goods coming in complies with regulations. This can be avoided of there is a drade deal, or Britain stays in the CU or SM. But as the PM has blocked these as red lines, it stands to reason there has to be a hard border in Ireland. Of course, the DUP are as mad as everyone, as they want Brexit and no border too; like how is that going to happen?

Divergence in standards, as championed by some of the Brexiteers mean there has to be a hard border between the EU, its the whole point of the CU and SM to ensure standards and regulations are the same over the whole of the EU. What the Irish PM said is only the known position, and it is his job to look after the interests of his country, people and businesses. If only the mad Brexiteers could do that here.

There also has to be no border for the terms of the Good Friday Agreement; it is unlikely that the "troubles" could start up again, but would anyone want to take that risk? Especially as the other solutions is for Northern Ireland to somehow be in the UK still, but the other side of the hard border, meaning that trade, travel between the rest of Great Britain and NI subject to a hard border, and there be a soft border between to two halves of the island. Would NI really then be a part of the UK? And would the DUP stand for such a position, but as I said, their policies on this are already impossible, so who knows?

On the subject of Ireland, it emerged that the Irish part of the negotiating team has been explaining to the Foreign Secretary, Boris de Piffel Johnson, the issues facing Brexit, as he was unaware. This is because when anyone comes to hom with problems he doesn't want to hear, he puts his fingers in his ears and hums the national anthem loudly. This might not be the best way for a Minister of the Crown to act.

It has also been reported that DD is ready to resign; how unlike a Brexiteer to walk away just as the going gets impossible. I have little respect for the man, but he is the most competent of the four Brexiteers. I'm sure if Johnson or Gove took over, with their patriotic outlook, it will all go fine. Gove wants to be Chancellor, as he thinks the current one is too pessimistic, and someone with a cheerful demeanor would be better. That Gove is a journalist by "trade" and is probably not that qualified to run a school tuck shop, but running the country's finances will be just fine too.

Sunday is the day when there are the politics shows on TV, and interviews with the players are published in the broadsheets. Tomorrow will be an interesting day, as each day is now, as the sands of time run out.

No comments: