Monday 27 November 2017

Reality still closing in.

Yesterday, the International Trade Minister, the disgraced former Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, said that talks on the Irish Border should be delayed until it is known what the actual trade agreement will be. I really don't know where to start with this one, as it is so fundamentally stupid, one would think it a spoof. But he really did go on TV and state this. You will know that Britain agreed to the EU timetable in which the three basic issues, trade rights and the Irish border and further talks would be depending on the EU agreeing that "sufficient progress" to have been made. Now, I know you know this, and you certainly know that I know this, so how could it be that a senior minister of the crown could be so clueless?

It is Liam Fox, of course.

Ireland have now hardened their stance and have stated they will veto any further movement on talks unless they receive a written guarantee that there will be no hard border between the Republic and NI.

Arlene Phillips is up in arms stating that nothing should get in the way of the precious Brexit, and there would be no border.

Today, Kate Hoey joined in screaming on breakfast radio on Radio 4 that if there was to be a border, then Ireland would have to pay for it.

Let's take this slowly: WTO rules, the very organisation that Brexiteers claim will free us from trade regulation with the EU will insist that the border is there. If not, a trade dispute will be triggered, and being in such a pickle as we try to forge new deals with the same countries who will object is not the cleverest course of action. And having no import checks or tariffs on the NI side of the border won't work either, as there are agreements; we would have to treat all members of the WTO, meaning no checks or tariffs at any border from any member of the WTO.

Brexiteers scream how unfair this is, that Britain should be be threatened by a "small" country like Ireland. But this is what life outside the EU will be, and progress and ratification of any deal will mean any of the EU27 can veto or block the deal.

And finally the reality is any talks on trade between DD and Michael Barnier will be political talks. Meaning that there is no basis under WTO or trade law that the EU has to keep to those agreements. The actual working agreement won't begin until after Britain leaves. But I'm sure Fox and Hoey know this as well. Or there will be trouble when they find out.

Turns out Brexit was a lot more complex than the simple process the Brexteers would believe and have us believe.

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