Friday 1 March 2019

Extend

As time runs out, just 27 days to go now, talk is of an extension to A50.

It is inevitable that one will happen. Or one will be asked for. Or that the PM will want to ask for it.

Things is, like with everything else in Brexitlalaland, the Cabinet and Conservative Party are split as to whether one is needed, or how long one should be for.

And then there is the not minor problem that the UK can only request such an extension, it is a gift of the EU to unanimously agree to such a request.

The PM has suggested an extension of "two or three months", but as I said, if that is to get the WA through Parliament, then only two or three weeks is needed, as the EU Parliament rises for the last time mid-April, and they also have to ratify the WA. If it is no longer sitting, then no WA.

And extension beyond two months will need the UK to take part in European Elections at the end of May. Legal advice in Germany has suggested this is the case, and the EU are unlikely to want the UK to take part in elections, as this would complicate the time if and when the UK leaves, as articles, laws and statues will all have to be changed mid session.

Also a member leaving mid-session of the Parliament might mean that the Parliament and Commissioners elected might then be illegally done, and so any decisions and laws would be challengeable in the UCJ.

The EU might offer an extension of 21 months, allowing the time clearly needed for details be to be clarified, and preparations even in the event of no deal that are still needed to be done. This would give the EU a cut off point to which they can change legislation for a UK exit.

But, as ever, all it would take is one country to block this, and there would be no extension, and Brexit happens as planned in 27 days.

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