Thursday 28 March 2019

What is Brexit

I ask this because I am sure for most people that they think Brexit was due to happen on the 29th March, tomorrow.

If what we mean is when will the UK leave the EU, or in technical terms, when do the Articles of the EU no longer apply to the UK, then that, or April 12th, or may 22nd might be right.

But the WA is intended to just mean, to all intents, the UK will remain in the EU for up to 21 months, maybe longer while the Political Declaration (PD) is made flesh.

But those 21 months will be filled with nothing but negotiating with the EU what our trading relationship with the EU. Only if the UK actually decides what it wants, of course. But Brexit will not stop on the date if an when the UK leaves the EU.

And then there will be endless trade meetings and councils util the UK actually rejoins the EU, which it will. We will be hearing about the EU forever.

Brexit will never stop.

And we will be negotiating as a potential partner that needs a trade deal, meaning we won't obtain an optimal outcome.

And, and this is important, if the UK leaves without a deal, which a possibility, the UK will have to negotiate something with the EU very quickly, and the opening prce from the EU will be respecting the GFA and honouring the financial settlement. And we will have to accept the EU's terms.

And yet the Brexiteers still don't see this. They think a FTA with the USA is just days away. It can be, but on the US's terms. Any fool can sign a trade deal, which is why Liam Fox is International Trade Minister. Liam Fox could not negotiate a beneficial trade deal for the UK as he doesn't know the first thing about trade deals.

Brexit will not end on April 12, nor on May 22nd.

You think you're red up now, wait until the trade negotiations start and still the UK, or the Conservative Party cannot decide what it wants.

So, May is going to bring back the MV, but has split it from the PD, which allows the Speaker to allow its 3rd life. But this means voting to leave without knowing what the aim is. I mean that worked out so will with the WA what could possibly go wrong?

The DUP will vote against it, most of the ERG will vote against it. There seems no chance of it passing.

If it does we leave the EU on May 22nd. If it fails, then we crash out on April 12th.

Brace, brace, brace.

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