Wednesday 15 January 2020

But what is Brexit?

Early in Brexit, it was argued that just leaving the EU's political institutions would be enough to satisfy the "mandate" from the 2016 referendum. Meaning that once the UK had left, arguing for something harder would be difficult for Brexiteers to do, as the people would have seen that Brexit had been achieved. This was called "BINO", Brexit in Name Only, and a lot of what Brexiteeers have done over the past three years is to counter this.

But now we come to the crunch, the UK will leave the EU at the end of the month, the articles of the EU will no longer apply to the UK, what then? THis is not Brexit, it just means the UK leaves the policy and political institutions, Brexit means Brexit after all, but the long term effect, the future relationship, has yet to be agreed.

Talks and negotiations will go on all year, will be technical, and the Government will try to keep them secret I think to give the appearance that all is done and dusted, so the media, press and public just move onto something else. As the UK enters the transition agreement, for the outside world, nothing much will change, and it is possible that the GOvernment will just get on with whatever job it wants to do regarding the relationship.

Johnson is a proven liar, so if he were to roll back on assurances and promises of not extending the transition, or having stronger alignment with EU rules and regulations, could they really make the public care? If the hard Brexit-supporting Parliament acts to frustrate the Government as did the remaining-supporting one did prior to November 12th, blocking Government motions and bills to deliver a less-hard Brexit. I mean the previous Parliament showed how it could be done.

How the leaving of the EU on the 31st is portrayed will be key: if it seen as a final act, then any manoeuvres by Brexiteers to frustrate what is going on might be seen as just political games: Brexiteers got what they what, now what? And as 54% of the electorate supported as a minum parties having a second referendum, opinion could swing against them. That's before the real effects of Brexit are felt.

Will Brexit have to be redefined by the Brexiteers, as not the single event as it has been thus far? Brexit is a process, and possibly a never ending one, and how will the public react to that, that once the event happens just more talks start and still the UK doesn't get what it wants?

Maybe it will all go smoothly, and there will be no issues or stuff to worry about. But because of the sheer incompetence of Brexiteers over the last three years, expecting to get their shit together now seems quite a reach considering the omnishambles of a shitshow they've managed so far.

No comments: