Today the EU ministers of the remaining EU27 held their meeting to discuss progress on Brexit. In under 120 seconds they agreed there had not been sufficient progress to allow trade negotiations to begin. But, they would allow internal preparations in anticipation for a start in December.
May, Davis and the BBC spun this as good news, but the sting in the tail for May and her brave band of Brexiteers is that progress has to be made on all three of the basic issues. I know you have heard this from me before, but listening to the three above, one would believe that money was the only sticking point, not citizen's rights and the Irish border too.
A treasury report on the impact of a "no deal" Brexit was leaked last night, sent to a lawyer who has been a driver in forcing the UK Government to follow their own laws regarding Brexit. It makes gloomy reading, that through this total farce of the protracted initial negotiations, then trade and the rest, only for Britain to be so much more worse off at the end of it, and be that worse of each and every year.
Problem is for Britain and May is that each country in the EU27 has their own idea on how much we might actually owe them. And then the chancellor talks about how much is legally owed. Let me restate that if Britain goes down the legal route, which they might end up winning, could take years maybe a decade to win, and we leave the EU in 18 months time, and if there is no agreement on these three issues, then no trade deal. No travel deal. No EURATOM deal. No FTA. No citizen's right. Hard boarder through the middle of Ireland. Nothing. Nada.
How badly does Britain want a deal? Or put it this way, how much is Britain willing to pay in the settlement to get trade discussions moving?
But the real problem for Britain is that Brexit is by some way not the most important issue facing the EU27; Catalonia, the rise of the far right. Russia, Trump. Brexit should be easy. But then it is with Britain, who still does know what it wants, and is split in Cabinet, Government, Parliament and country. And deal is likely to be rejected by some part of Parliament, and/or one of the EU27.
The chief executive of Goldman Sachs was in Frankfurt yesterday for meetings, and tweeted how much he enjoyed the city and its climate. Just as well, he added, as I will be coming here much more #brexit . A real kick in the teeth to the City of London, and a part in the Conservatives that once tried to be the party of business and The City, and would have caused so much hell if a Labour Government was willing to allow London to lose its place as the financial and pharmaceutical centre of Europe. Now it is just part of the process, an everyday story of rats deserting the Brexit ship.
Still, sunlit uplands and mustn't talk the country down. Rule Britannia and all that.
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