Tuesday 31 October 2017

The strategically accelerated brexit

As you may have noticed, Brexit news is coming thick and fast, mainly as David Davis has finally noticed that the clock is ticking louder and louder. I mean, I was wondering when he would notice.

His idea, given to a House of Lords Committee today was that the process needed to be strategically accelerated. No idea what that means, maybe it it is something other than stumbling around in the dark. He added that it was hoped that Michel Barnier would come to London for laks on Wednesday, but couldn't make it, so talks are to be held next week.

It is clear that there is a huge difference between the EU and UK on the financial settlement, DD still banging on about £20 billion, which only takes Britain to the end of the 2018-2019 financial year. It is the EU's PoV that Britain should pay up to the end of the current 5 year budget cycle, and also pay on deals and projects they have signed up to. This is not going to be easy.

"Maintaining an invisible border will be relatively easy - if we have tariffs then a real problem". Indeed it would, if there was an invisible border. But to have that then very close trading relationship is needed, CU or SM, but that comes with ECJ jurisdiction, a red line for May, and yet for no good reason other than it's a EU institution. THis does not even begin to address the huge issue that he has with the Irish border, as I have stressed many times, and it will be up to him, and Britain to come up with a fix that is acceptable to the Conservative (and Unionist Party, to give it it's full name), the DUP, the Republican side, Eire and the EU26, and be within the rules of the EU.

Good luck with that.

He then went on to say: "we will have a basic deal - I think of it as a deal without the bits we want". That is a no deal but calling it a deal. Messing with semantics here, which I suppose is to be expected, but the financial hits will be clear to everyone in time.

As for those impact assessments: "not required to release anything which would undermine negotiations". Still sticking by those poker analogies, even though with Brexit the EU knows our hand, which is why we were where we are. He closed with stating that trade deals could be closed very quickly and there are opportunities out there. By opportunities he means challenges, of course. And trade deals that are done quickly, won't neccessarily be in our favour, but by then we will have to accept any crumbs any country is willing to throw our way.

In other news, it was revealed that membership of the EU costs Britain £8.3 billion a year, or 33p a day for each and every one of us. Quite a bargain, as EU citizens pay into the exchequer som £15 billion a year, and take less than £3 billion a year in benefits. And finally, best case scenario, a softest possible brexit will cost the economy £15 billion a year, with each harder option costing more. As was pointed out on Twitter, all this because some people don't like to hear Polish on the bus.

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