Building a bridge to your Brexit

Just remember, that with each passing day, Brexit Day, 29th March 2019, gets closer and the time to arrange something, anything, gets ever tighter, and with each passing day the EUs already strong hand gets stronger. The PM looks at her two of clubs, Master Bun the Bakers Son, A Skoda Estelle Top Trump car and "The Fool", and realises she is not going to win another hand, in the way that all movement over the past ten months has all been on the UK side, whilst all the EU has to do is say "Non" or "Nein".

And always remember that the negotiations being conducted are not between the UK and EU, but between May and her spit cabinet and the editors and owners of most of the right wing press, moving slightly each time in order to minimise the adverse headlines and editorials. The agreement reached between the EU and UK before Christmas needs to be legally formalised, and the grey areas will have to be clarified, and when it becomes clear what the EU thinks and will insist it means will come as a shock to the brave Brexiteers, as it is them who will have to explain to the public why they can't have cake and eat it, in fact the only cake they can have to eat will be soap.

The root of the problem is the term "most favoured nation" status, which under WTO rules allows bespoke deals to be struck. Only under the same rules, if you offer a better deal to one country under this term, then you must apply this to all who were covered by previous deal. So there is no chance of a bespoke deal, better than what Canada and Japan has, or the EU will have to grant them the same deal.

And A50 politically be extended, as there are due to be EU elections in May 2019, so the possibility that a member in the process of leaving be able to vote in the elections is unthinkable to both the EU and UK. And yet other than stopping Brexit totally, it is the only thing that makes sense.

And then there is the transition deal, which should be the next thing to be discussed, as long as part 1 is legally formalised, is this deal. But, in order to negotiate a transition deal, the UK will have to decide what it wants a transition too. In other words, the disparate parts of the Cabinet, Government and Conservative Party will have to all agree on something, and something that the EU will also have to, unanimously, agree to. A deal that is good for the Tory Party will not be good for the EU and so will not pass the ratification process, in fact it is hard to see almost any deal pass the EU ratification process of all 27 member states and up to 11 regional Parliaments.

And the best bit, is the fall back position of in the case of a no deal, that NO and the whole of UK will have regulatory alignment with the EU, ensuring no divergence so to allow "frictionless" trade; EU approved paperwork, inspections, standards and mediation, whilst the UK will be a rule taker and not a rule maker. Or not allowed to have an input in new or updating the rules.

In order to divert attention from the visit by the French President, the sometime Foreign Secretary was interviewed in the Torygraph where he suggested that a Bridge be built over the Channel to facilitate trade. Let that sink in, as he pushes for severing trade ties to Europe, he suggests spunking tens of billions on an unworkable bridge. Some said that he was kept in post to stop him causing chaos on the back benches, instead causing chaos on the front benches.

M. Macron confirmed that financial services could not be included in a trade deal, unless UK was part of the SM< and that meant accepting the four freedoms. I seem to remember this being something the EU says quite often, so one wonders when the message will get through the thick skulls of the Brexiteers and PM.

Thing about the EU is that is, and always was, first and foremost a bloc of nations sharing common ideals to prevent European conflict. Any country that tries to step outside the rule, and yes I'm talking to you Poland and Hungary, you will be threatened with being kicked out. And if they do not change their path, then the EU27 will be the EU25, trade or not, this matter more. So, Britain leaving the EU is seen forst and foremost, Britain rejecting the shared values and being part of a united Europe, and that is the cause of most pain for them. Threatening to leave the ECHR just doubles this down, on institutions set up in the wake of WWII to ensure that war and hate do not sweep through the continent. And that the ECHR was an idea of one Winston Churchill, and for trade, the SM was the idea of one Margaret Thatcher, the great Tory heroine, who one thing we could be sure of, would be hard against Brexit.

But as ever, Brexiteers, the PM, Cabinet, Government, Owners and editors of the fearless free press struggle with the demands of reality, and up to this point, try to ignore them. Kicking difficult issues intot eh long grass to fix later in the 2 year A50 process will make it more likely they can't be solved, or solved by UK giving in.

Reality is a hard mistress.

Imagine this scenario: come 29th March 2019, France has to ratify the deal between the EU and UK, if t fails to do so, UK leaves the EU as a consequence of the A50 timetable, and as a result of the phase 1 agreement settled before Christmas, the UK would have to have complete regulatory alignment as detailed above; meaning UK leaves the EU, but trade is unaffected, and EU intituations, banks, far eastern car manufacturers relocate to mainland Europe. Now tell me that's not having cake and eating it, and taking back control!?!?