Mystic Jelltex

So, it is a new year, same problems, so what do I see happening?

1. The UK Government will fail. Maybe not tomorrow, or next week, but with each day that passes, room to manoeuvre grows less and less. In the end, negotiating a path between what the Brexiteer headbangers and editors of the Mail and Torygraph want, what her party Europhile rump wants, what Parliament wants, what UK and foreign businesses that trade or manufacture here, and reality. It will all become too much. Depending on the circumstances means will we either have a Conservative or Labour government, and what policies will they be elected on?

2. The reality of the agreement reached in December 2017 means that there is unlikely to be a hard Brexit. In case talks break down then NI and the rest of Great Britain will trade with the EU as it if it was a member of the SM, even if it isn't "actually" a member, and will accept all rulings as long as that situation continues, without having any input as to how rules are decided upon and implemented. The realities of May's red lines makes 1. inevitable as it gives no scope for negotiation.

3. In the event of JR< or de Piffel Johnson leading the party, you might see the return of hard Brexit, threatening to walk away from talks with the implications for UK trade and the Irish border, again, once the agreements from December 2017 are placed into UK law, then that option will not be available.

4. If Labour changes it's policy on Brexit and decides against it, Corbyn would win a landslide, but that would require him changing his own views on the EU and leaving. The other option is him being replaced, but with he having the support of the "Momentuntum" part of the party, a Corbyn regicide would split the party. However, the reality of Brexit will mean that Corbyn would have no choice but to change Labour policy. In Kier Starmer he has a great mind who would be able to put over the reality of the situation, not current Government Mayspeak of strong and stable, with a deep and meaningful relationship, which even she doesn't know what means.

5. With each passing week, the shrieking of the Brexiteers will get louder, and reality means their dream moves ever further away.

6. The once Great Repeal Bill will be savaged in the Lords, and be subject to many amendments, including that the Houses of Parliament will be able to reject whatever Deal May or DD might get from the EU.

7. Any final deal that is agreed between the EU and UK will be the one that the EU decides to give Britain, and will be very limited under the WTO rules. Whether this could be sold to Parliament and the COuntry is unlikely.

So

Government collapse
Change in Labour policy on Brexit
Labour elected
Unilateral halting of Brexit as er A50
Too late to stop many businesses leaving UK
Change in UK law meaning no further A50 can be taken
UK politics in chaos for a generation