Thursday, 25 January 2018

The week that will define Brexit.

If you look carefully, you will see there is, mostly, a softening in attitudes from the PM and most of her cabinet, as the beliefs of the headbangers meet the hard reality of international trade.

Tomorrow, DD will make a speech where he is due to finally spell out HM Government's ambition in the end point of Brexit. It is expected to be a combination of Brexit rhetoric and reality. Leaving the EU, SM and CU but there being a transition period, in which UK will abide by the EU SM and CU rules, and will have no place in the making or rules, but will take the rules. The reality of taking back control.

Today, JRM, arch Brexiteer and head of the ERG says that the Government must talk up Brexit or it will be a managed decline.

So, the reality is the battle between the wings of the Conservative Party, who will win out, not what is best for the country. THe interesting point is that any deal struck with the EU will have to get through Cabinet, the Government and Parliament, and there is no guarantee of any of those. However, if the headbangers within the Conservative Party block a deal, it would mean, as a minimum, a leadership challenge, and with the stakes, another election. And not sure if even JRM and the ERG are ready for that, but then again he has issued threats today.

So the choice is between the CBI side and wanting to preserve trade within the EU, or the true believers of Brexit who want the hardest of all Brexits. Never the twain shall meet.

Next week the EU will release the legal framework it thinks was agreed to with the UK in December, not sure yet if this has to be ratified, or will be a glorious gentleman's agreement. What is clear that if Britain tries to backtrack from this, it will cause all the agreement to collapse and the remaining talks fail, Britain crashing out of the EU with no deal.

Huge stakes, and unclear which way the sides will go, but anything is possible. But make no mistake, the EU has the upper hand and will offer what it thinks UK should accept.

A year ago, in her Lancaster House speech, May decided that her Government policy was the hardest of hard Brexit. In years to come, people will talk whether had she softened her tone on that night, Brexit might have turned out differently. But that is a moot point, with the clock ticking, and 14 months left, six of which is closed due to the ratification process.

Former PM, David "ham face" Cameron, was recorded as saying that Brexit wasn't as bad as expected, and the right wing press sprung on this as if this was a ringing endorsement for Brexit: not as bad as we thought. Why are we doing this?

At the end of next week, we will know what Brexit Britain wants. Probably. And know what will happen if no agreement can be made. Expect lots of anger and shouting.

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