At the crossroads

It is worth pointing out at this point the choices facing the country regarding Brexit. NB, these choices have not changed since February 2017 when the Article 50 notification was submitted to the EU.

Article 50 is the method in which a member state can leave the EU. Its author never intended the article to be used, so it it is not a complete legal framework, it was written to satisfy some states that complained there was no way of leaving.

Article 50 is the method which states, under international law, that the articles of the EU will no longer apply to a member state, it has a two year fixed term, which, unless another date is agreed, the member state will leave, no matter what, ready or not. Both sides.

Another way of leaving could have been via a treaty, which is how the UK joined, but this would have taken time, but in using a treaty, the issues could have been unpicked and solved on by one. The EU almost certainly would not have accepted the idea of a treaty, as the A50 method puts the clock on their side, and the turning of the pages of the calendar ramps up pressure on the state leaving.

Vote Leave said, in fairness, that A50 would only have been triggered once all the issues were sorted out, so the two years would have been a formality. This would have been sensible.

But the EU pressed the UK into its sequencing, meaning that negotiations on the WA could only happen once the A50 had been sent. DD said this was going to be the row of the summer, and yet under his negototiation, the UK capitulated on this issue on the morning of the very first day, thus giving the EU even more time based leverage.

A50 states that the two year period will produce a Withdrawal Agreement (WA), which would then trigger a (mostly) standstill transition period of a fixed term, during which the fine details of the UK and EU's relationship would be hammered out.

Originally, the A50 period was due to end on 29th March 2019, and the transition period December 31st 2020.

A strict timetable.

Accessing the transition period is only made via an agreed and ratified (by both sides) WA. No WA, no transition.

I hope you're paying attention, Johnson!

So, bearing in mind the above, the three choices facing the PM, any UK PM is:

1. Leave the EU via a WA

2. Leave the EU without a WA

3. Revoke A50 and stay on current terms.

There is a forth choice, to request a (further) extension to A50. The UK has requested this twice already, and signs are a third one would be rejected unless it is for:

1. A second referendum

2. An election

An election takes about two months from start to finish, but then the (possible) winner would need time to decide what to do and enact whatever (potential) mandate the electorate had given them.

A second referendum would take at least a year, maybe 18 months, so a substantial extension would be needed. This is to allow for primary and secondary legislation to be passed.

The current agreed WA leads to a very hard Brexit, but not until 2021, it has failed three times to pass the Commons, and Johnson has declared it undemocratic. Or the backstop in it. It is almost certain the only part of the WA that will be changed by the EU is to revert the backstop to apply to NI only. This was the original plan, until the UK requested it be changed as this would create a customs border in the Irish Sea. It is very hard to see how the DUP, who prop up the Conservative Government could ever accept this.

There have been various economic impact assessments done by several Government and independent agencies on no deal. The latest by the Office of Budget Responsibility states the average cost is a reduction in GDP of 7.7%. But this is not the worse case.

The EU have said in the event of no deal, there would be no "side deals", so no so-called "managed no deal" that many Brexiteers have spoken about. Indeed, in case of no deal, the pre-requisite for any talks beginning on anything between the UK and EU would be the three parts of the current WA; financial settlement, citizen's rights and the backstop. The UK can have the backstop as part of the WA or having to agree to it while planes don't fly and freight backs up on the motorway from Dover and there is food, medicine, fuel and energy shortages.

We need the Government to be honest about all of the above, but we have the king of liars in Number 10 now, and the disinformation has already started with social media blitzes.

Reality will win out, of course, but how the result is spun is another.

Despite a change of PM and Cabinet, the arithmetic in the Commons has not changed. Indeed with the purge of the remainers and soft Brexiteers, numbers will be even harder for a no deal to be passed. Thus setting up a constitutional battle between the executive and Parliament as to who commands who.