Possible October timetable for constitutional crisis

By @GeorgePeretzQC.

The convention is certainly that an outgoing government - in particular one that has just lost a vote of no confidence - should not take any decision that would preempt the result of the election to come.

So if Johnson loses a VONC in, say, early October, he should apply for an extension to A50 to avoid a crash out before the election.

But what if he refuses? Respect for constitutional convention is not, after all, a strong point of the Brexit extremists now in charge.

Here, the Fixed Term Parliament Act may help.

The immediate effect of a VONC is to trigger a 14 day period: if no vote of confidence is passed in those days, there is an election. So if there is a VONC, the winning MPs (opposition + Tory rebels) should make it clear that unless Johnson agrees to apply for an extension they will unite round an alternative PM (eg Grieve) to form a temporary government pending an election.

If that candidate could command a vote of confidence, the Queen would have to send for him/her: if Johnson refused (contrary to his constitutional duty) to advise her to, she would be acting entirely constitutionally to do so without his advice.

But one would assume that the threat of being replaced by eg Grieve would be enough to get Johnson to eat his words and apply for the extension: doubtless blaming (as usual) everyone but himself for the broken promise.

The 14 day period would then expire and we’d have an election.