Monday 7 May 2018

The the final battle commence.

Battle lines have been drawn, and the two leaders make speeches.

Not the EU and UK of course, but the two factions in the Conservative Party, with JR< on one side saying what he wants the PM to do, and Justine Greening, sacked from the front bench last year, threatening a revolt against the headbangers and saying the Customs "Partnership" is still on the table.

No one is quite sure what the difference between a union and partnership is, what we do know, that in its present form the EU and Ireland have rejected it out of hand. But this is the madness of Brexit.

Of course, the EU know that if they keep rejecting "fixes" then May's Government might fall, there be an election, or worse, JRM made PM and then the chaos will really begin.

Even in that event, with JRM has a headbanger, hard Brexit loving PM, he would still have to get his plan through both Houses, and that is far from given. It might have been better if May had faced the headbangers down last year, as each week that passes, the stakes get higher and higher, as time slips through her fingers like grains of sand on a beach.

Just a reminder that there can be no Brexit deal unless the EU, every one of the 27 members and the EU Parliament agree. And a transition deal would need the backing of over ten regional assemblies and/or Parliaments too. That is once Mr Barnier is happy with the deal that he offers the UK on the EU's behalf.

So, who will win: the headbangers with backing of the Tory press, or the Europhiles with the backing of reality?

No comments: