Monday 12 November 2018

Its making your mind up

I know I say this every week, but this week is when Brexit really gets real. In that there has to be a WA accepted by both the EU and UK.

In the last few weeks it seems that even the Brexiteers are paying attention, but than as once said, impending execution can really focus the mind.

And then the fun really starts as the ratification process begins, both in Westminster and in Brussels and the capitals of the other EU27.

IDS and the ERG posted a joint column in one of the Tory papers yesterday stating they were going to appose any WA that May has negotiated, and the DUP have already said that in the event of a customs border in the Irish sea they would too.

But this is the whole point of Brexit, when promising two things that make each other impossible, then you have to choose which one is more important. And until the Brexiteers are confronted on that by the media and they come up with an answer, they are allowed to waffle and spout hot air, but this is something that cannot be avoided. Either no border, thus agreeing to close alignment with the EU, or no alignment and a hard border. It really is that simple.

So, it comes down to whether the Brexiteers in the Cabinet, the ERG and DUP can look reality in the face and accept that, or continue promising unicorn farts..

And Labour are no better, Jezza stated Brexit cannot be stopped, yet Kier Starmer says it can. The question Bild should have asked Jezza needed to be asked was, “if you could stop Brexit, could you?” He might have avoided it, or he might have answered it. There is a legal case ongoing, though the Government is going to challenge that again, but it is a strong possibility that Parliament could instruct the Government to stop or extend Brexit.

The EU is suffering from Brexit-fatigue, and who can blame them, I know I am. And then end game for the EU is to get the UK parked into a long term TA so they can get on with the serious business of running the EU, and with the centenary celebrations for the end of the First World War, the fact the origins of the EU were based in the aftermath of the second one with the aim to stop warm and promote peace between European nations, which makes UK’s choice to leave all the more damning, and all the more mystifying from our soon to be ex-EU partners.

In the end the choice is between accepting the EU's offer and risking not getting the support of Cabinet and/or Westminster, or rejecting the EU's offer to appear strong. Only problem is that both courses, only courses, of action lead to either no deal or no Brexit.

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