Wednesday 14 November 2018

Making your mind up time. again.

So, the EU and the UK have come to a broad agreement regarding the WA. Close enough to put it the politicians in London and Westminster for them to read it and maybe start the ratification process.

In the end, reality won out; no big surprise there, in that NI will stay in the SM for goods, and so with the rest of Uk in the CU. The backstop is the backstop, there might be some fancy wording, which might allow the imagery of not being permanent, but it will be, and the UK alone won't be able to end it.

And that is open ended.

Which is the worse of worse worlds for Brexiteers in that it is what they feared. It does mean that NO in some cases will be treated differently, and that is unacceptable to the DUP, who are going to break the supply and confidence agreement with May's Government.

But what did they think would happen when the promised impossible things, and results that could never be delivered?

But, what happens now?

Well, May is speaking to each of her Ministers asking whether they support her, and if they do, and in doing so they will judge whether the WA can pass through Parliament. The DUP will vote against it, and the dozen or so Scottish Conservative MPs will vote against it unless the wording on fishing is changed. And the ERG will vote against it. And Labour says if it does not offer the same benefits as being members, they will vote against it.

The numbers do not add up.

If that is the case then the WA cannot be ratified, May will have to decide what to do then; stand down, election or run a second referendum.

But the EU will not negotiate more, nor change the wording on things like fishing. It is what it is, and was always going to be, the UK would get the deal the EU offered and decides to take or leave it.

At the same time the EU27 will begin the ratification process, with the agreeing of a meeting of heads of state at the end of the month, but by then May may have already fallen and Brexit will be on a funeral pyre, or the headbangers will push U towards a no deal.

In the end May decided a bad deal was better than no deal, thus killing another Brexit lie.

Late in the evening, it was announced that the Cabinet had all approved the text of the WA. Though that was said of the Chequers paper in the summer and two Ministers had resigned by Monday, but they were DD and Boris, so no one really noticed. In this case, if Raab does not resign it will be a good sign, or....

In a speech outside 10 Downing Street, May said the choice was between this Brexit, no deal Brexit or no Brexit.

Members of the ERG have submitted letters of no confidence in May, but others are waiting to see how things appear in the morning. The EU did publish the text, 585 pages of dense legal wording, which has been signed off but not many will really understand what it all means for many days or weeks.

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