Monday 18 November 2019

Bland and meaningless

"Get Brexit done"

This is Johnson's new mantra, which he repeats over and over again.

It means nothing.

What, I guess, he means is that to those who do not know, or want to know, the Brexit process, passing the WAB and leaving the EU on 31st January 2020 is somehow the end of Brexit.

The reality is, of course, that is only just the beginning.

Years of talks and negotiations lay ahead, with the UK having a negotiation mandate to take forward into the trade talks so it knows what it wants at the end, in general terms.

There is no such mandate, nor much agreement on what the UK, or more accurately, Great Britain, wants. The Union of the United Kingdom is dead, there will be major differences and lots of added paperwork and tariffs to import goods from NO into Britain. No matter how much Johnson denies it, it will happen. The Unionist party killed the union.

Get Brexit done is like leaving your house in the morning, but no idea of where you're going or how to get there, but you're leaving anyway. I got it done, you tell yourself as you walk past your own house for the tenth time. Agreeing a position and tasking trade negotiators with a mandate is part one of what needs to be decided. Before talks get started. Talks that have to be completed by the end of July 2020 for ratification.

Its almost like there is no intention to actually get any of it done.

But as I said before, geography isn't going to change. The UK, or Great Britain is 23 miles from the French coast, the UK or whatever we decide to call ourselves once the Union is destroyed forever, we will have to trade with the EU because it has 300 million of the richest consumers on the planet, and they live next door. Geography counts in trade, and this will never change.

Find a trading bloc with 300 million rich consumers other than the EU 23 miles from UK shores. There isn't one. And selling fresh fish to Australia or just about anywhere is not going to replace trade with the EU.

As always, anyone who talks about trade just in terms of tariffs, like Trump, who doesn't understand the tariffs he puts on Chinese goods and materials is a tax on US manufacturing and farming. Maybe he does, but having to subsidise US industries is fine if its a result of Trump policies, if Obama had done this, it would be socialist.

Non tariff barriers are what will hurt and cost, and especially to services that will not be covered from day one of Brexit nor under any FTA. Services is many thousands of time larger in the EU economy than fishing, but sure, talk endlessly about fishing.

And the endless promises on spending goes on and on. Though today, Johnson scrapped the reduction in corporation tax, thus adding billions of new costs to businesses.

Fuck business.

Tax cuts are a cost. To the exchequer, and a cut in taxes here means cutting spending elsewhere. Basic economics, or government, but Johnson only now sees it.

What else might he realise in the next few weeks and months?

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