Sunday 3 November 2019

Divergence or alignment

If the UK ever leaves the EU, then on the first dafter, both sides will be perfectly aligned.

But as the months and years go by, what happens then?

Well, the dream (nightmare) of Brexiteers is a trade deal, of some kind, with the US.

The US will want all sorts of concessions from the UK, and to allow certain goods that are banned at the moment, under EU rules, to be imported into UK, or more accurately, GB.

Take our old friend, chlorinated chicken: currently banned in the EU, so banned in the UK too. If there was a trade deal between the UK/GB and the US, then US Farming Lobby would want this included.

So far, so good.

But allowing it into UK/GB would mean it entering our food and supply chain, and it is still banned in the EU, so any product with chicken will have to prove, the the EU's satisfaction, that the chicken did not originate in the US, otherwise it just opens a backdoor into the SM.

Rules of Origin are there for a reason, and will have to be appeared to. Even if there was room for latitude, Johnson's plans for a liberalisation of red tape, legislation and rights, thus creating a "Singapore of Europe", then such flexibility is much less likely to happen.

Rules of origin are as important in finished goods/products too, where in many trade deals, for a product to be classed as "made in the EU", a certain percentage of its parts need to have been made within the EU. If the UK were to leave the EU, it could threaten such rules, and so a manufacturer would have to switch suppliers to an EU one remain in compliance with RoO. Not that Brexiteers will have thought of this, or if they have will try to use as something else to blame the EU for.

Divergence might have appeal for Brexiteers, but the risks it would mean need to be understood. But like everything else in Brexitlalaland, it won't be, and be made out to be as simple as anything.

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