Friday 24 July 2020

Pass the buck

Brexiteers are now trying to say that the hard or no deal Brexit the country is facing is because Remainers fought Brexit at every stage.

This is a lie.

There was always ample time to turn away from this path, most notably when May lost her majority in the 2017, clearly there was no national backing fer her vision of Brexit, she could and should have reached out to find a compromise.

But that would never have been acceptable to Brexiteers, who always after getting what they wanted, pushed for more. More Brexit, more pain, more costs. Until we fave either the hardest of all Brexits or another no deal.

The cost of both is enormous, in terms of job losses, prestige loss on the international stage, and loss of GDP, but many of this things happens so slowly, most people hardly notice.

This week there was a story that Cadburys are going to reduce the size of their chocolate bars, but not reduce the cost. This will happen time and time again for goods of all sorts. Its all part of the "Brexit of little things", the little things we take for granted. All of these, well many of them, will become more fifficult or more expensive. Or both.

No one has really explained to the public the Brexit of little things, that a lot of the little things will happen with or without a deal, they just will. And will require, in many cases, preparation for mitigation not just by companies and exporters, but by each of us too. An international driving permit, pet passports, travel and health insurance, the return of data roaming charges, cost of energy and so on and one. And that is just off the top of my head.

Interrupted supply chains will mean added costs. Just in time supply means that manufacturers tie up less capital in stock, increasing efficiency, reducing physical footprint with no need for warehousing. Being outside the SM and CU will mean delays. Mean more red tape, and that is not the choice of the EU but as a direct result of the UK leaving the EU. The Government was told this would happen, and they responded "project fear", to close down the debate.

Brexit was sold on having the same benefits with saving money. It was written on the side of a bus. 50,000 customs agents and inspectors will be needed, trained, given IT systems and paid to work. All this costs you and me the taxpayer, and will add to delays on goods coming in and leaving the country to the EU. This will mean some, maybe many, exporters, importers are no longer financially viable and will close. More jobs lost. Or they can find a UK supplier, might be more expensive, not so efficient. Same result.

The free market, something one nation Conservatives used to care about, found its natural best systems, the most efficient, allow for maximum profit under minimum stock holding meaning cheaper prices for consumers. Brexit will destroy that, as it always was going to, once May decided that Brexit meant leaving the SM and CU.

But Brexit has happened, we have left the EU, and the future relationship with the EU will be one that we have negotiated by ourselves. We as a country own this, the choices we made, the lack of scrutiny on the empty promises made, and now that Parliament has castrated itself and will allow Ministers like Liz Truss to have a free ride to decide whatever she wants in a trade deal.

In all other EU27 countries, trade deals negotiated by the bloc were debated and approved, the UK waived the right to do that, and then Brexiteers used that decision to "show" how undemocratic the EU was. As is almost always the case, what was blamed on the EU was, in fact, a UK Government policy choice. Now they have chosen, under a Tory three line whip, to abdicate their responsibility once again, like they did with the indicative votes or when there was a free day in the Commons and all they had to do was agree on an alternative course than hard Brexit.

This week a new campaign to prepare for Brexit: "Let's get Going", a series of slogans that make it all sound so wonderful, all about new opportunities, sovereign nation, and so on. This is part of the shock and awe promised, if people follow the links, they will find no opportunities, just added work and cost that we will all have face and comply with. That also wasn't written on the side of a bus.

Links show there is no benefit, no cost saving, no time saving with Brexit. Just costs, delay and paperwork.

As it always was going to be.

Brexit is barely in the headlines now, just the occasional jingoistic banner headline in the Express or Mail, about how Johnny Foreigner will soon learn when the UK walks away. But the Union is already split, not the UK with the EU, but Britain with NI. That is broken whatever happens, and when the reality of that hots, well, all bets are off.

But then, everybody knew what they were voting for, apparently, and Johnson then had his oven ready deal.

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