Those "no deal" scenarios, in full

As promised, here are the way in which a no deal Brexit can be reached, and once you read though I hope you will see how I reached the conclusion that no deal is the most likely, because it is by far the easiest form of Brexit to reach.

NB: Unless the UK Government of the day says otherwise, the UK will leave the EU at 23:00 GMT on 29th March 2019. The UK would to ask to either rescind the A50 notice or extend it.

NB 2: a "deal" is a withdrawal agreement (WA) that is reached between the UK and EU.

So, a no deal Brexit will happen if:

1. Both the UK and EU fail to agree the terms of the WA, which must include, as a minimum, financial settlement, rights of citizens, and a solution for the NI/Irish Border.

2. Any WA would have to be ratified by each of the EU27 and the EU Parliament, failure of any of of these to ratify the WA would result in no deal.

3. Failure to get any WA through Parliament. Domestic ratification, in other words.

4. Headbanger Brexiteer forcing the Government into a scenario where they would only accept a no deal.

So, in order to obtain a WA, May must get one that satisfies each and every one of the EU27, the EUP, her ministers, backbenchers, party, the HoC, the HoL and the country.

Any deal that satisfies one part, would not the others. Will be messy. And cause the Brexiteers to blame anyone except themselves. But will blame the EU loudest.