Weekend Brexit

Today is the last day of August, and from Monday the political class return to work in Westminster, and about time to, as Brexit is ramping up. Steeply.

Between now and Christmas, the WA needs to be agreed, agreed on by both the EU and UK in the shape of Barnier and Raab, and then comes the ratification process.

In order to get the WA, the UK will either have to accept the fallback position on the Irish Border or come up with an alternative that is acceptable to all parties in NI politics, and then the Irish Republic and the rest of the EU while being acceptable to all political parties in London, and to both wings of the Conservative party.

Good luck with that.

However, we can guess, or even know, what sort of Brexit will happen. And we can do this by asking a simple question. Its a simple question, but the answers are very difficult.

The question is, where would Britain like the border with the EU to be.

Answer that, and what Brexit we will get is much clearer.

Either the border between UK and EU will be as it is now, or with the border in the middle of the Irish Sea, or a hard border on the island of Ireland. These are the three choices, pick one, and then which WA fits that choice.

All parties agree there should be no hard border, in which case the order will be as it is now, or down the middle of the Irish Sea.

Could Britain live with NI being part of the UK politically, but not economically? May says no, in which case the border has to be as it is now, and that means either No Brexit, or a Beno. Brexit in name only.

That the Brexiteers failed to take into account the only land border the UK has with the EU in their drive for Brexit, and still have no answers show how useless they all are.

If the UK crashes out and UK then breaks its word on the fallback option, then this would make the UK's position in global trade very much weaker, our word would no long be our bond, and trade deals would be worse, with much tougher clauses. But I'm sure the Brexiteers have thought of this.

And finally, overnight, Trump threatened to take the US out of the WTO; he is already blocking appointments to the mediation judges, and so where would that leave the Brexiteers statements that the UK would be just fine under the WTO if Trump destroys it first, or worse, after the UK leaves the EU?

Just when you think it couldn't get any madder.