Thursday Brexit

A story emerged yesterday that the French President was pushing for the EU to do a “deal” with the UK. The pound leaped in value on the news. And yet this is nothing new, it is something that either someone in the EU or Barnier has said this most weeks, but the WA, the “deal” if there is one to be done, will be in conjunction to the EU rules and regulation, and in particular the four freedoms. And before that, the finalisation on the agreement reached in December for the divorce settlement, citizen’s rights and the Irish border.

If all of the above can be agreed, then some kind of WA can be reached, but it is impossible to see that any compromise on the four freedoms, citizen’s right, divorce settlement and Irish border.

And the blithe insistence by Brexiteers, like JRM, that no deal would be good, or even an acceptable alternative to a WA or that no deal is better than a bad deal is clearly a lie. And always was. In terms of exports, there has been no preparation here in Dover, and for the port to be ready would need years of planning and building work, otherwise there is just chaos and dozens of miles or parked freight on Kent’s motorways.

On top of that you have the Channel Tunnel, all other ports, airports, keeping planes flying, truck drivers able to work in the EU, cancer treatment and all other medicine supply and approval. And all the other things the EU does for us as a matter of course. It would take near on a decade to sort everything out so the exit from the EU smooth.

But even if the UK and EU reach agreement, not only does the EU27 have to ratify it, May has to get it by her own party, and the ERG in particular, and seem to have no qualms about forcing a no deal. What happens at the Tory party conference at the end of September will shape the UK’s path towards March 2019, or will bring may down. Or something inbetween.