Choices

The place where the UK now finds itself in, in one of its own making. Left with a series of desperate and fraught choices, each one of which will infuriate those who want the other choices.

The choices are:;

The WA (aka May's deal). This delivers on the referendum result, but not on the promises of a better deal than the UK has now. Its main problem isn't that it includes the backstop, any solution that depends trade with the EU means accepting the backstop, its that very quickly the UK would have to decide what relationship it wants with the EU. This is not Brexit. This is just the first part of it, negotiating the trade deal is the main part, and as yet the UK cannot agree among itself what that it, shows the folly of remainers and Brexiteers rallying behind May last week. Kicking this choice down the road is very dangerous as there would just be 21 months in which to conclude and ratify a deal. Either that or the cliff edge is just delayed.

No deal. This is the chaos potion. Not only will trade suffer, but things from medicines, travel, among hundreds of policy areas will be thrown off the cliff. Depending on whether the UK honours the framework of the WA and pays the financial settlement, then the EU might be inclined to do side deals as it would help them too. But in the event of non-payment, the price for any side deals or start of trade talks will be all of the £39 billion. No one really knows what will happen in the event of no deal, but as news of "preparations" are leaked, it looks ever more like the UK would be going to war. Going to war with reality.

No Brexit. This stops the madness, but would be the start of difficult times politically internally, as those who pushed Brexit would have to explain what went wrong. Although this is the most sensible, this is the most unlikely.

On top of that, it is clear that there is now not enough time for any forms of Brexit to enable the UK to get legislation through both Houses. This might be a deliberate ploy, what with there being no Brexit business schedule in The Commons this week.

An extension to A50 is a gift for the A50, and is not a given, and there is some doubt as to whether all would allow it just in the event the UK wasn't ready.