Saturday, 23 February 2019

Saturday Brexit

Let me share with you the real horror of Brexit:

Even if May gets the WA through Parliament, that is just the first part. She then has to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, get the EU 27 to ratify that, then the EU Parliament, and then get Westminster to ratify it.

And bear in mind the trade deal will be more difficult to get past her own party than the WA, as this will be the actual relationship the UK will have with the EU; close or not.

And get it done in just 21 months, and have all ports and points of entry ready to implement whatever the trade relationship. Probably including an IT system, which the UK has a very poor record in bringing online in the public sector. In just 21 months.

And the same people who have negotiated the WA will then switch to the trade deal.

It does not bode well. And they will also have to negotiate dozens of other trade deals too. At the same time as with the EU.

And.

And there is rumours that the Conservatives are ready to commit regicide, with May to be forced out whatever happens in three months.

That will leave a real motley crew to choose from for the new leader: DD, Johnson, Gove, Raab. Which means that there will be a leadership contest at least, possibly an election too, and with the EU not knowing who will be in power to conclude talks. And all that would eat into the 21 months. And there is the very strong possibility that whoever is in power might say they will not honour what May had negotiated.

So, party politics will carry on, even as the cliff edge begins to fall away. Like no one in Westminster really cares.

No comments: