Tuesday, 26 February 2019

What does it all mean?

May has said that in the event her WA is voted down again, the there will be two further votes, one on whether ruling out no deal and a second on an extension.

Problem is that this is yet more delaying, can kicking and more creation of confusion and anger in industry.

The DExEU published its impact assessments relating to a no deal Brexit, and it is grim stating that upto 9% of GDP will be lost, and will be worse initially.

But these were published to head off an amendment by now independent MP Anna Saubry, but it seems what was released is just a summary, as a Privvy Counellor, she had seen the full report, and is now pushing that for to be released.

Thing is, putting the MV off and off, is that it really gives very little chance for an alternative course of action. But that has always been the problem. The BBC are reporting an extension to A50 of two or three months is inevitable. But two months is possible, but three not really.

As previously stated, the EU Parliament rises in the middle of April, and they would have to ratify the WA. And if the UK is still in the EU at the end of May then EU elections would have to happen, but domestic legislation would have to be passed to enable that to happen. And that would have to be debated very soon.

So, time is very much of the essence, and yet May seems not to be all that bothered.

At lunchtime, it seems Brexit was fatally wounded, but May won't state if she would vote against a no deal if it came to a vote. But then, as ever, if no deal were to be avoided, then something else out of a very range of options would have to be agreed.

Tomorrow is a big day, as a range of amendments are being prepared, and most MPs now longer trust the PM's word to do as she promised. So, May carrying the day is not a certainty, but then again, each time the Commons had the chance to take back control, it blinked.

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