Thursday Brexit

As I write UK politicians are discussing what happens next in Brexit.

Or to be more accurate, are not discussing what happens next, in that unless they decide to do something, then no deal is the default and will remain so, no matter how many times MPs say it can't happen, or pass unbinding motions on the government.

Nothing is being down in the interests of the country, just what is deemed to be good for their respective parties.

So, we will go through the charade of MPs discussing what they don't want, the political version of moving the last remaining lawn back and forth on the chessboard. At some time, it has to stop.

But they will carry on, probably the PM winning a series of votes this evening, as the ERG props her up now rather than letter her fall and meaning an election.

What is clear is that very few MPs understand, or want to understand the issues, about trade, the EU or anything else, rather rely on soundbites and downright lies.

What makes trade frictionless in the EU is the SM, CU, tax equivalence and the Euro. The Euro has had a lot of critics over the years, but for businesses, takes away the risk of currency fluctuations. Failure to adopt the Euro last decade meant a number of large companies moved out of the UK, so we can see Brexit as a continuation of that.

Companies can ask suppliers to invoice in Euros, but there can be no avoiding the friction and barriers caused by Brexit. Either a country is in the SM or it isn't. Being out of t means friction, and friction means costs. Same with the CU.

Also, you can tell when a politician fails to understand trade, when they talk only of tariffs. I have said this before. Non-tariff barriers can be more difficult and expensive to deal with. And out of the EU, we cannot have input into these that the EU might want to impose on 3rd countries. As we will be one.

MPs like Kate Hoey, wilfully are ignorant of how the EU works, and are proud of their ignorance, yet claim to have a complete understanding on how international trade will function of the UK crashes out of the EU. And she is a Labour MP, MP for a constituency that voted by the largest margin to remain.

From @JonGPeet from The Economist today:

"Listening to another Commons Brexit debate just after spending two days in Brussels I am struck yet again by how little Tory Brexiteers (even ministers) understand the EU or how it works.

They do not grasp how little trust there is in Theresa May’s government, after it whipped for the Brady amendment to vote against the deal she negotiated and said was the only one available

They cannot see that this makes the EU (and Dublin) even more determined to preserve backstop with no time limit or unilateral exit right, though ready to make promises on temporary nature

They fail to detect impatience in Brussels with vague demands from May to “fix” the backstop to help her get the deal over the line, when what is needed is a concrete, specific suggestion

They do not realise that Whitehall, never mind Brussels, cannot take the Malthouse/Madhouse compromise seriously as a policy as it drives a coach and horses through the WA

They still think no deal is a threat that will bring the EU to heel over the backstop, rather like Thatcher threat to withhold budget payments, when it is actually an offer to commit suicide

They fail completely to understand that integrity of the single market matters far more to the EU, both politically and economically, than any potential disruption of access to the UK market

They believe that no deal can be “managed” to eliminate painful disruption and that invoking AXXIV of WTO can then lead seamlessly to the nirvana of a Canadian-style trade deal

They do not see that in fact it would lead to acrimony, money rows, lawsuits and, in effect, a trade war that it would be extremely hard to climb back away from

That is not least because A50 would lapse, so any new negotiation would have to be A218 meaning unanimity and full ratification by national and regional parliaments – which could take years

Finally, they delude themselves that, if no deal happened, it could somehow be blamed on the EU, something no disinterested observer (or voter) could possibly believe

And we might be only 42 days away from this (even A50 extension by a few months won’t stop it happening again in July). Depressing; also, as ever, worryingly ill-informed

Please make it stop.