On trade

I have said several times that anyone who talks about trade purely in terms of tariffs really doesn't understand trade. As it is non-tariff barriers that will really be difficult to overcome.

It comes back to the control/trade compromise.

I read a good article by Matt Bishop on how the UK has come to where it has, and it seems that most Brexiteers see trade in a 19th century way, one which deals in finished goods only. Modern trade is about complex supply chains, crossing and recrossing borders, because its cost efficient to do so. And that for most suppliers, this is normal. And for organisations like whom Jools works for, they send parts hither and thither to be cut, coated, treated before receiving them.

This involves a courier, and a courier will carry many consignments, I have read that one company says each truck carries on average 300 consignments. In a post Brexit world of the hardest Brexit, each of those 300 consignments would need customs declarations, proof of origin, and where a component have several parts, orgins of those too. One of the hardest is going to be foodstuffs, the WTO rules of biscuits and their ingredients and what tariff or customs rules to apply is very complex.

Things that exporters to the EU currently don't have to worry about or do, but might have to. Or not. So they will have to prepare for both, or all scenarios. Each time the UK Government changes its mind on what Brexit is, it creates costs for UK business making them less competitive.

Trade, certainly since the second world war, has been about the removal of barriers, either tariff or non tariff, so to facilitate trade, and the UK under Thatcher was a leading advocate of that, not that you would think that now. What Brexiteers cannot grasp is that the SM and CU are the reasons there is frictionless trade, you simply cannot leave either or both and expect to have frictionless trade. By definition, Brexit will create friction, which will create delay, which will create costs.

Saying this isn't the case doesn't change reality, and until Brexiteers understand reality, rather than denying it, we might be able to find a way to make this shit show work. But for now, the Government is suppressing all criticism of Brexit, stopping Ministers going on radio and TV shows that are over critical, even when there is a public health issue to publicise. This is clearly madness, but we are seeing MPs, Ministers and now Civil Servants being replaced not because they are trying to sabotage Brexit, but because they don't believe in it.

That the Government won't even start an economic impact assessment until after it has been agreed shows really they don't believe in it either, but really like the unfettered power that the WAB will bring, and will use it to justify attacks on the BBC and the Judiciary.

Reality won't change, the very real and difficult choices will have to be made, and accepting the risks and costs those choices bring are best shown now, rather than later.