A mini crisis for Brexit

The stock response to any negative story on Brexit from the hard-line Brexiteers, whether it be a Minister or former Minister right down to the gammon on the street is that it is all part of what was called “project fear” in the run up to the referendum. This was really the response given to any “so-called expert” whose knowledge had to be questioned and if possible, rubbished.

So the suggestion, or forecast that companies or whole industries would leave the UK for mainland Europe was just more project fear, and this is something that is still reeled off even now. And if a company does say it is going to scale back production, or move to the EU, then they are just using Brexit as an excuse for poor management, like Michael Gove knows anything about the cross-border supply chain in the motor manufacturing industry.

Today, BMW announced that Mini production was going to stop for a month after 29th March due to fears of supply chain interference. Make no doubt, this is the clearest sign of the reality of Brexit, or the reality of the uncertainty about it. Doubly so as the Conservative Party are still locked in a fight to the death as to what shape Brexit might take. Now, a Battle Royale at Conservative Party HQ is oddly a compelling thought, it doesn’t allow the many sectors of the country to do some actual planning.

On top of that, the Channel Tunnel is to close for two weeks too. I mean, this is serious shit, stuff that would have sounded bonkers two years ago, but today, in a world of Trump and Brexit, this is just another day in Brexitlalaland where this national act of self-harm is something not to be questioned, but cheered on.

The EU meanwhile, has moved on from Brexit, and when their leaders meet later this week, they are giving Brexit hardly any time, instead worrying about Hungary, Poland and the US-China trade war. May is to be given a few minutes to speak to them, probably over coffee, like some kind of light relief after the serious stuff. Not that Brexit isn’t serious, but unless UK says otherwise, its going to happen, and happen with now, only just enough time to get a WA, were it agreed already, through ratification. If the UK isn’t going to take Brexit seriously, then they would just get on with their plans and project.

And I suppose that is Brexit: for the UK it is about rediscovering some kind of golden past that never really existed, while the EU are always looking to the future to see how things can improve further.