Thursday 27 September 2018

The party of business.

David Allan Green published a trio of tweets today setting out in how little time of actual power, the Conservative Party wrecked first the country, and then Brexit.

"Between 1996 and today, 22 years, Conservatives have only had an overall majority for just two years, 2015-17.

And in those two years, they unleashed both an in/out referendum (with a "mandate" which parliament seems not to be able to gainsay) and a botched Brexit.

Two years.

(Major lost overall majority 1996; Conservatives in opposition, 1997-2010; no overall majority, coalition with Lib Dems, 2010-2015; no overall majority, supply and confidence agreement with DUP, 2017- ; "natural party of government".)

In effect, of course, in 2015-2017 the Conservatives were in an unholy though entirely unofficial coalition with UKIP.

A Faustian arrangement, which went horribly wrong for the Conservatives while giving UKIP the one thing they wanted, UK out of EU."


This is the truth that history will judge Cameron and May in the decades to come, and the legacy the Conservative and Union Party will and its leader will have to bear for decades. It is that reason I think that the party will not continue in its present form, the damage will be too much.

There is still time for Labour to change course, to go for no Brexit, or at least a second referendum, but it too is riven by an ideological chasm, one which has its hard right and left demanding Brexit, whilst the majority in the middle are apparently helpless.

Labour has had its own conference this week, and despite the obvious differences, it seems that some kind of softening of it's pro-Brexit stance is coming. Next week it is the Conservative Party's turn, and despite the leadership trying to keep a 2nd referendum off the agenda, let alone pausing or stopping A50, it will be discussed in fringe events.

How May handles the next week will decide if she is still PM the weekend after it, even if she mishandles it, won't be the first time she would have done that, then she is likely to be in power for longer as there is no credible alternative, as any Brexiteer who might take over, or lead the party into an election would be tainted as much by Brexit failure as May, and Brexit, like most else is more about party politics and persnal ambition that it being what is good for the country.

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