All bets off

Decisions have consequences. Sometime we just don't know what.

Today, the UK announced it wants a substantial rewrite of the NIP, as it couldn't be made to work.

Needless to say, the EU are strongly refusing the request.

The US has warned the UK.

So, what happenes now?

It bears repeating, again that:

1. The WA and NIP are different to the agreement May had made.

2. May's deal had the backstop, this has the NIP.

3. Johnson was the PM and Frost his negotiator.

4. The NIP, a border in the Irish Sea is what May said no UK PM could accept.

5. Along came Johnson.

6. Johnson decided on the terms, Frost negotiated it.

7. The UK Cabinet accepted it.

8. Johnson called an election and was elected to implement his "oven ready" deal.

9. It was rushed through Parliament with little scrutiny.

10. UK Parliament ratified the WA and NIP. I wrote at the time, not the only one, that the NIP broke the UK single market.

11. Johnson denied a border in the Irish Sea was the reality. Even as border posts were being built.

Who knows where this ends up: maybe like the much vaunted reform of Judicial Review (the white paper for which was published today and hardly has any changes at all), maybe it all noise and Johnson will back down.

Maybe, maybe not.

It might well get rough, strap yourselves in.